Although Michigan has a higher delegate count, the results of the 2016 Hawaii caucus and Idaho and Mississippi primary polls also hold sway in the Republican and Democratic races.
While Democrats will only be voting in Michigan and Mississippi’s primaries, GOP voters will want to closely watch the polls leading into Idaho and the Hawaii caucus as well. In total, 150 delegates are up for grabs on the Republican side of 2016.
If the Mississippi primary polls prove true, the Magnolia state’s delegates are already relatively tied-up for the two candidates currently leading each party’s respective contests: Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton. While neither have the abundance of data available ahead of Michigan’s primary, the results are still quite definitive.
On the Republican side, Donald appears to have carved out an even stronger lead in the last few months than he held when a poll was taken in August. At that time, the 2016 Mississippi primary leaned in his favor with 27 percent of the vote. Another poll from Magellan Strategies, released at the end of February, indicates that Trump has widened that advantage, rising to a 41 percent share of the vote. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio trail behind significantly with 17 and 16 percent, respectively. Notably, 13 percent of those asked had not yet decided for whom they would be casting their ballot.
For Democrats, the Mississippi primary polls paint an even more decisive picture. Both of the surveys released in February show Hillary with more than 60 percent of the vote in her favor. The most recent, also from Magellan, lands her with 65 percent to Bernie’s 11 percent, though nearly a quarter of those surveyed were undecided.
A more detailed breakdown of Mississippi primary poll data from Public Policy Polling shows Clinton is viewed to be overall more sympathetic to race relations, women’s issues and immigration. If given the title of Commander-in-Chief in 2016, 72 percent believed that Hillary would be the better candidate for the job. Even on the issues of Wall Street crackdowns and income inequality that have been centerpieces of the Sanders campaign, she still reigns dominant.
While Democrats won’t be voting there, the Idaho primary and Hawaii caucus polls are also important to watch with 32 and 19 delegates offered by each state. Although not quite as commanding as his numbers in Mississippi, Donald is also poised to win in both states. Idaho Politics Weekly ran a poll a few weeks ago that showed Trump with 30 percent of the vote to Ted and Marco’s respective 19 and 16 percent. Again, 11 percent were undecided and 9 percent wished they could vote for someone else.
Blame the slow pace of life on the island, but March 8’s real surprise will be the Hawaiian caucus. Definitive poll information has not been released, and it’s unsure what is on Republican voters’ minds in the 50th state. Also unlike the Michigan, Mississippi, and Idaho primaries, the caucus is much more difficult to call as minority votes may slip over to whatever candidates are able to drum up enough support to qualify for delegates. Attempting to connect with the state’s voters, Donald found himself in a controversy when he tweeted about employing locals at the Trump International Hotel Waikiki Beach Walk, a hotel that its own website notes he does not actually own.
I employ many people in Hawaii at my great hotel in Honolulu. I’ll be there very soon. Vote for me, Hawaii!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 8, 2016
Although there are no true predictions for the Hawaii caucuses, the 2016 Idaho and Mississippi primary polls appear to be projecting another big day for Donald Trump. For Democrats in Mississippi and Michigan, the question seems to be more of how many of the 166 delegates Hillary Clinton will scoop up, but Bernie Sanders could still easily have a strong showing the latter state.
[Photo by Donald Miralle, William Colgin, and Robertus Pudyanto/Getty Images]