The 2016 predictions are looking good for Donald Trump, with a growing number of political pundits taking the Republican front runner seriously, and many saying he could even win the presidency.
At the start of his presidential run earlier this year, many considered Trump to be something of a sideshow, the reality television star just looking to get a bit more air time. As he continued his run, many people still saw Trump as an attention-seeker but he also amassed a growing number of supporters, forcing even his critics to take the campaign seriously.
Now, with just a few weeks until voters start to go to the polls, Donald Trump has cemented his place as the race’s front runner. Even a controversial call to ban all non-American Muslims from entering the country has done nothing to slow his momentum, and in fact two-thirds of Republican voters said they agreed with Trump’s stance.
Some Democrats are giddy at the idea of Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination in 2016. Liberal radio host Bill Press told RealClearPolitics that Trump is the “best thing that ever happened to the Democratic Party this year.”
— Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) December 11, 2015
Others think Donald Trump has a real chance to win in 2016. Vox turned to six different pollsters for 2016 predictions, and while most think that it is unlikely for Donald Trump to win, many found scenarios where Trump could end up winning it all.
Two of those Republican pollsters, John McLaughlin and Ed Goeas, believe that the circumstances are so ripe for Republicans that Trump could win just on lingering resentment toward Barack Obama.
The story also rolls out some specific 2016 predictions, with the pollsters pointing to some exact circumstances under which Donald Trump could win. While they weren’t pretty for the American public — some of the most likely scenarios included an economic collapse or a major terrorist attack — none are outside the realm of possibility.
But on the flip side, some political experts envision a way for Donald Trump to win the most primaries throughout the early voting season and still end up on the sidelines. Think Progress reported that Republican leaders were already looking at the possibility of going into the Republican National Convention without a clear winner.
The report noted:
“Leading Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus met Monday to discuss how the party could ‘lay the groundwork for a floor fight in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative,’ according to the Washington Post’s Robert Costa and Tom Hamburger. With many candidates still in the race, and Trump commanding a strong plurality — but nowhere near a majority — in the polls, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where Trump wins more primary votes than any other candidate but still lacks enough delegates to lock up the nomination. Indeed, the delegate math seems to favor the establishment.”
Donald Trump could also end up taking on the Republican establishment. A poll found that 68 percent of Trump’s supporters would back him if he left the party and made an independent run. It may not mean much otherwise, but Trump seemed very proud of this stat, implying that he could be considering this option if he were to lose the nomination.
A new poll indicates that 68% of my supporters would vote for me if I departed the GOP & ran as an independent. https://t.co/ztP5d2ctZl
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 8, 2015
Still, many political pundits warn to take caution with 2016 predictions of Donald Trump winning the presidency. Even though the primaries are fast approaching, a lot can change between now and then. That was seen last cycle, when both Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain held front runner status before Republican voters rallied around Mitt Romney. And it was even more clear in the 2008 cycle, when Hillary Clinton was seen as a lock for the nomination before Barack Obama pulled off the huge upset.
[Photo by Mic Smith/AP Photo]