The most recent poll for the Republican Party nomination by Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics shows big moves up for Ben Caron and Joe Biden, and a big move down for Donald Trump. The poll is the most recent in that it includes data collected between September 26 and October 1, while the next most recent poll, tracked by Real Clear Politics, was conducted by USA Today/Suffolk and included data collected between September 24 and 28.
The IBD/TIPP numbers are the result of polling a sample of 377 registered Republicans, while the USAT/Suffolk poll had a sample size of 1,000. The most recent poll has a margin of error + / – 5 percent.
The IBD/TIPP poll shows Ben Caron leading Republican candidates, holding 24 percent of voter favor, with Donald Trump lagging him by 7 percent, being supported by 17 percent of voters surveyed. Carly Fiorina held third place in the poll, shown capturing 9 percent of voter approval.
This is a big change from the Real Clear Politics current average, which includes poll data as far back as September 17, and shows Donald Trump leading with 22.8 percent, Ben Carson in second with 17.3 percent and Carly Fiorina in third with 11.0 percent.
This is also a huge slide for Donald Trump from his average peak polling, as measured by Real Clear Politics, of 30.5 percent in mid-September. Jeb Bush led the average polls for most of early 2015 into July. Bush’s numbers have now dwindled to 8 percent with IBD/TIPP and 8.3 percent on average.
It is difficult to be certain what could be responsible for Trump slipping in the polls. More than one person, including Hillary Clinton, has called Donald Trump out for failing to correct a man for incorrectly stating that President Barack Obama is a Muslim during a Town Hall meeting held in New Hampshire on September 18, as reported by MSNBC. However, just days later, on NBC’s Meet The Press, Ben Carson stated that he did not feel that a Muslim should be allowed to hold presidential office. As she did with Trump, Hillary Clinton wasted no time in sharing her views with Carson’s viewpoint on Twitter.
“I would not advocate that we put a Muslim in charge of this nation. I absolutely would not agree with that,” Carson was quoted.
Donald Trump not denouncing false statements about POTUS & hateful rhetoric about Muslims is disturbing, & just plain wrong. Cut it out. -H— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) September 18, 2015
Can a Muslim be President of the United States of America? In a word: Yes. Now let's move on. -H pic.twitter.com/AB99hiUPie— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) September 21, 2015
Judging from the movements in the polls it would seem that the Republican voter base prefers Trump’s “hateful” rhetoric, to Carson’s unconstitutional rhetoric.
The same IBD/TIPP poll shows Hillary Clinton holding 42 percent of Democratic voter favor, and Joe Biden surging into second place with 22 percent of voter support, passing Bernie Sanders, who came in third, and making the grade with 18 percent of voters. For the overall average of polls, Clinton leads with 41.5 percent, Sanders is in second with 25.4 percent, and Biden is in third with 18.8 percent.
The most interesting thing about Joe Biden’s surge is that he hasn’t even announced his candidacy yet, though some observers expect that he will and that an announcement is likely in the next seven to 10 days, as reported by the Inquisitr.
Support for Hillary Clinton has dwindled from a high near 67 percent early in 2015, and has undoubtedly been hurt because of her e-mail scandal and the potential for criminal charges, according to the Washington Times. NPR recently reported on third quarter fundraising by Clinton and Sanders. Clinton reportedly raised $28 million, while Sanders was close behind, raising $26 million.
Despite its small sample size the IBD/TIPP poll is touted as being “the most accurate” in the 2004 and 2008 elections and “the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.” A recent study by Moody’s Analytics predicts that Donald Trump will not even secure the Republican presidential nomination, as reported by The Inquisitr. The research firm is currently calling for a “landslide” Democratic Party presidential win.
[Donald Trump Photo by Sean Rayford / Getty Images — Ben Carson Photo by Darren McCollester / Getty Images — Joe Biden Photo by Leigh Vogel / Getty Images — Hillary Clinton Photo by Joe Raedle / Getty Images]