Nate Silver’s 2014 political predictions say Republicans might retake control of the Senate from Democrats.
As previously reported by The Inquisitr, pollster Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gained fame in 2012 when he almost accurately calculated in advance President Obama winning by a certain margin. Many other 2012 predictions and polls, including Gallup, were favoring Mitt Romney at the time.
Nate Silver has noted in the past that polls “can certainly affect elections at times” and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because of this, Nate Silver’s 2014 predictions might be his last because he doesn’t want to “influence the democratic process in a negative way.”
Nate Silver’s 2014 predictions are slowly beginning to favor Republican but overall he feels the 2014 election is a “tossup.” Republican currently hold 46 seats in the Senate but they’re likely to lose one after a special election in New Jersey later this in 2013.
Nate Silver says Republican can focus on “playing offense” in the 2014 election to gain the Senate majority of 51 seats:
“A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.”
Republicans have been slowly gaining steam in Nate Silver’s 2014 probability estimates. Back in February Nate Silver was estimating Republican would control between 49 and 50 Senate seats after the 2014 election.
If Nate Silver’s 2014 predictions come to fruition the last two years of President Obama’s term in office will essentially be a “lame duck” session. Republicans seem very likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives, so winning a Senate Majority would give the GOP complete control over Congress, which hasn’t been seen since 2006.
What do you think about Nate Silver’s 2014 predictions saying Republicans will control Congress?