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Nate Silver’s 2014 Predictions Say A Republican Senate Majority More Likely

Nate Silver's 2014 Predictions Say A Republican Senate Majority More Likely

Nate Silver’s 2014 political predictions say Republicans might retake control of the Senate from Democrats.

As previously reported by The Inquisitr, pollster Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gained fame in 2012 when he almost accurately calculated in advance President Obama winning by a certain margin. Many other 2012 predictions and polls, including Gallup, were favoring Mitt Romney at the time.

Nate Silver has noted in the past that polls “can certainly affect elections at times” and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because of this, Nate Silver’s 2014 predictions might be his last because he doesn’t want to “influence the democratic process in a negative way.”

Nate Silver’s 2014 predictions are slowly beginning to favor Republican but overall he feels the 2014 election is a “tossup.” Republican currently hold 46 seats in the Senate but they’re likely to lose one after a special election in New Jersey later this in 2013.

Nate Silver says Republican can focus on “playing offense” in the 2014 election to gain the Senate majority of 51 seats:

“A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.”

Republicans have been slowly gaining steam in Nate Silver’s 2014 probability estimates. Back in February Nate Silver was estimating Republican would control between 49 and 50 Senate seats after the 2014 election.

If Nate Silver’s 2014 predictions come to fruition the last two years of President Obama’s term in office will essentially be a “lame duck” session. Republicans seem very likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives, so winning a Senate Majority would give the GOP complete control over Congress, which hasn’t been seen since 2006.

What do you think about Nate Silver’s 2014 predictions saying Republicans will control Congress?

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Comments

22 Responses to “Nate Silver’s 2014 Predictions Say A Republican Senate Majority More Likely”

  1. Vera Carter

    You may be right about that. Looking into citizenship elsewhere. Republicans in this country are becoming to Taliban-like for me.

  2. Anonymous

    Democrats and Barack Obama are toast in 2014. Republicans will take over the Senate. Now, even the guru of prognosticators, Nate Silver, thinks so. If there is any silver lining for Democrats it is in the House where a swing of 17 seats could give Democrats control. Experts all say that scenario is unlikely.

  3. Humma Kavula

    Well, the experts aren't taking into account that, with 16 months still to go before the 2014 elections, the Republicans can seriously screw their party's prospects up. With each successive bill they introduce and pass that plunges the Conservative Knife into the back of the middle class and the poor, they further destroy their chances. As I see it, anyone who votes for a party whose approval ratings are lower than those of crab lice and cockroaches, is a mindless idiot asking for trouble.

  4. Rita M Nicholson

    We must get out the vote! The US Taliban must be dethroned and driven out of our Country.

  5. Robert Cutler

    I shudder to think of the damage the Rs can do with control of both houses.

  6. Randall Whitt

    With 16 months to go before the midterms, I believe this is still to close to call. When you have nuts like Steven King out there comparing dreamers to drug mules it seems likely that the GOP will shoot themselves in the foot many times between now and November 2014.

  7. Randall Whitt

    @Robert Cutler… Fear not Robert, we'll still have a Obama in the whitehouse with that veto pen until 2016. We're also very likely to have a republican president until at least 2020. Republicans may be able to win senatorial and congressional elections because of their creative gerrymandering but they've proven themselves too batshit crazy to put forward a viable presidential candidate for 2016. Right now the most probable republican nominees are Rick Perry, Mark Rubio, and Jeb Bush. None of these guys will ever be able to win a general election considering their radical policies.

  8. Arleen Duckat

    I hope he's totally wrong, wrong about the Republicans gaining a majority in the Senate and, also, his predictions about the House not voting in a Democratic majority! I simply don't understand with all the Republicans' far right wing, backwards, rigid, mean-spirited policies, being controlled by the corporations which value their own profits over the well-being of the American citizenry why the majority of Americans keep voting in more and more of them. Seems like majority of people just keep shooting themselves in the foot!

  9. Donna Schultz Koleski

    I am hoping that the people have a chance to see how stupid the Republicans are. They shot themselves in the foot with their stupidity when Mitt was running. I am confident they will do it again.

  10. Sharon Tomalavage

    I can tell that most of the folks writing Including Vera, Darlene, are idiots pure and simple. Darlene can't even add. She claims that folks keep voting in republicans (I wish), yet ignores facts like we voted in an ignorant communist (Obama), the Senate is in democratic hands and has been since 2008 but still this country is "flucked" up because these idiot liberals can't seem to comprehend that you have to get off your collective lazy drug filled asses and go to work!! Be responsible, work diligently, have a love of God and country, learn good morals, not the Hollywood kind. These values, combined with cutting fraud in entitlements, a flat tax, dumping Obamacare (whose author, wild-eyed Pelosi ) couldn't be bothered in reading what she and her minions shoved down our throats in the dead of night

  11. Pam Bergren

    I want to see something more current—-since the ShutDown, and the Benghazi witchhunt has been proven a farce, and the VA Governor race……… Nahhh, the tide is turning. Dems will keep the Senate, and have a good chance at the House.

  12. Duncan MacDonald

    well we saw what the democrats did with Both houses, its called Obamacare… and it sucks!!

  13. Betty Caron

    If the GOP take over the Senate and keep the House, we get NOTHING accomplished in the next two years to move this country forward. Get ready for impeachment hearings, more made up scandals like Benghazi, IRS, more deregulation that got into this mess, etc. We are in big trouble.

  14. Cill Olenick

    Yes, no doubt about it, the GOP will be playing very down and dirty!! It's election time they will do anything to win the votes.. sure hope people are smart enough to NOT vote republicon.

  15. John Smith

    Betty, do some research. Who deregulated the banks? That's right Clinton. Anyone who will dismiss all the allegations against this administration and chalk it up to racism is going through life willfully ignorant.

  16. Audrey Rutherford Muldoon

    The GOP takes over because the nation is sick of this Socialist admin. Wake up you panty waists