Tags : oil demand, oil prices, oil supply
Oil Demand to Rise 40 Percent in 20 Years, But Will It Be There?
Paris, France (AHN) – The world’s demand for oil will increase 40 percent within 20 years, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. But questions remain whether enough oil is left to meet those demands, even with conservation efforts.
In a report, the IEA said the state of the economy has caused a decline in oil consumption, but that demand could go up “if government policies don’t change.” Under current energy policies, the organization predicts a 40 percent rise in oil demand by 2030, amount to about 16.8 billon tonnes of oil equivalent.
Over that period, demand will increase 1 percent a year, rising from 85 million barrels a day in 2008 to 105 million barrels a day in 2030, according to the report, World Energy Outlook 2009. That’s a slight reduction from last year’s report, which projected demand of 106 million barrels a day in 2003.
China and India will account for more than 50 percent of the increase in demand. The IEA says China will overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest consumer of oil and gas imports in around 15 years.
Rising oil prices, along with a decline in investment in oil production, are a “serious threat to the world economy, just as it is beginning to recover,” the IEA said.
The report also urged world leaders to take action on climate change when they gather next month in Copenhagen for the United Nations climate summit.
Officials at that summit “have an historic opportunity to avert the worst effects of climate change,” IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka said in a statement.
Tuesday’s report “provides both a caution and grounds for optimism,” Tanaka continued. “Caution, because a continuation of current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6 degrees Centigrade and poses serious threats to global energy security. Optimism, because there are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change while also enhancing energy security – and these are within reach as the new Outlook shows.”
Containing climate change is possible, the report says, but require “a profound transformation of the energy sector.”
Energy efficiency measures could cut climate-warming greenhouse gases by more than 50 percent, according to the report. Those measures include producing 60 percent of electricity from renewable sources such as nuclear and facility fitted with carbon-capturing devices and a dramatic increase in the number of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles.
Even before the report was released, some people associated with the IEA were questioning whether the world supply of oil may have already peaked. In an interview published Monday in the British newspaper Guardian, a person identified only as a senior member of the organization claimed that the amount of available oil has been purposely overstated to avoid a panic.
The official said the United States had influenced the IEA to downplay any suggestion of a looming shortage. He questioned whether existing supply would actually allow production to increase to 105 million barrels a day projected for 2030.
A second person, identified as a former senior official, said the IEA projections had been overestimated so as not to anger Americans. He believed that existing oil supplies were less than publicly-announced estimates.
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