Six months into the office and Donald Trump’s presidency has faced controversy after controversy. His approval rating in the six-month mark is lower than most of the recent United States presidents, and many Americans are calling for his impeachment. While there are predictions that Trump will resign on his own accord, what are the odds that he would get impeached?
The first attempt to impeach Trump came underway last week when California Democrat Brad Sherman an article of impeachment against the president. According to Sherman, Trump allegedly obstructed the investigations on the collusion with Russia during the 2016 presidential election, as reported by Time.
Sherman admitted that it is still a long shot to remove the president from the office, but he is hoping that Republicans will join the impeachment effort if Donald Trump’s “impulsive incompetency” continues.
US Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman said in his analysis of the impeachment process that it is actually a lot difficult to remove Trump from his position than most people would imagine, News.com.au reported. According to Prof. Jackman, President Trump is not likely to be impeached, first because no U.S. president has ever been kicked out of office. Richard Nixon, who got involved in the Watergate scandal, resigned in 1974 before he could be impeached.
— ABC7 Eyewitness News (@ABC7) July 12, 2017
Prof. Jackman added that impeachment is a political process, which means that if America’s politicians are not so willing to remove the president, it doesn’t matter that what he’s doing is wrong. Prof. Jackman said criminal acts do not guarantee impeachment.Furthermore,
Furthermore, a majority of the House of Representatives would have to approve the articles of impeachment first before the president could face an impeachment trial in the Senate. Then, the Senate needs a two-thirds vote to convict the president and remove him from office. As it stands now, 86 percent of the Republicans, who currently control the House of Representatives and the Senate, still approve of Donald Trump’s performance, according to CNN.
Still, Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large, warns that Donald Trump’s presidency is on the brink of a political abyss. In addition to his low approval rating at 39 percent and disapproval rating at 59 percent as of July 19 based on the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, he lacks legislative accomplishments and is linked to an investigation regarding Russia’s involvement in last year’s U.S. presidential election. His son, Donald Trump Jr., met with a Russian lawyer to discuss a potential damaging information regarding Hilary Clinton.
— CNN (@CNN) July 21, 2017
If these would be enough to impeach President Trump, analysts predict that he might resign first, just like what Nixon did. Per The Independent, Columbia University law professor Philip Bobbitt said:
“Resignation, as remote as it seems right now, might well be a choice the President would make to save his children from prison, and himself from future prosecution.”
“A president who thought it was likely that two-thirds of the Senate would vote for conviction would resign prior to impeachment or trial, perhaps even trading the timing and manner of their resignation for a presidential pardon from their successor, protecting them against criminal prosecution,” Prof. Jackman said.
Ladbrokes latest odds said there is a 48 percent chance Donald Trump would resign or be impeached by 2020 and a 58 percent chance that he would be able to serve his full first term.
[Featured image by Alex Wong/Getty Images]