The Trump impeachment odds are getting better by the day (if you’re a bettor, that is, and believe he’s not going to last). As theT Telegraph reports, bookmakers are now offering even money, or better, on Trump not finishing his first term.
Betting on the outcome of a political process may seem ridiculous to most Americans. After all, the only things casinos will usually take action on, outside of their own games of course, are sporting events. Illegal, back-alley bookmakers are just going to give you dirty looks if you ask about putting down money on politics.
But in Europe, particularly Ireland and the U.K., it’s not only possible to bet on the outcome of a political process, but it’s actually a popular bet. And considering the cloud of investigations, unpopularity, and general negativity surrounding Trump and his administration, European bettors are all about putting money down on his impeachment.
What’s more, the odds fluctuate every day (usually in favor of impeachment) as Trump digs himself deeper and deeper into a political hole.
English bookmaker Ladbrokes offers a variety of bets on the outcome of the Trump administration.
- That Trump will not be re-elected in 2020: 2/7 (that is, a £2 bet will get your £2 back plus £7).
- That Trump will serve his first full term (not resign or be impeached and removed from office): 8/11.
- That Trump will leave office via impeachment or resignation before the end of his first term 11/10.
In other words, English bettors are giving Trump a 58 percent chance of not making it through his first term, one way or the other.
— HeartMKNews (@HeartMKNews) July 11, 2017
Ladbrokes isn’t the only European betting house taking money on Trump’s impeachment. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power also offers a range of bets on the Trump administration. Specifically, on whether or not the House of Representatives will vote to impeach Trump before the end of his first term, Paddy Power is taking bets at 5/6; in other words, a 55 percent chance that Trump will be impeached.
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) July 11, 2017
Of course, all of this talk of bets and casinos just refers to what the general public – specifically, Europeans who are willing to place bets – collectively thinks of the Trump impeachment odds. What do political observers think is likely to happen?
Slate writer Ben Mathis-Lilley has a regular feature called the Impeach-O-Meter, which was most recently updated on July 10. As of this writing, Ben is putting the odds at 57.5 percent. Meanwhile, L.A. Times writer Jonah Goldberg wrote about the topic on June 13. Goldberg didn’t give numbers, but speculated that if Democrats win back the House of Representatives in 2018, Trump’s impeachment is all but a slam-dunk. Business Insider writer Jamelle Bouie, on the other hand, calls talk of impeaching Trump a “false promise.”
Do you think Donald Trump is likely to be impeached before the end of his first term? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
[Featured Image by Evan Vucci/AP Images]