Will Donald Trump get impeached by the end of 2017? Well, more and more people believe that Donald Trump will not come out of 2017 still as the President of the United States—and they are so confident they are betting real money on it.
The gambling industry has really expanded in the last years, and have moved on from exclusively targeting sports and card games enthusiasts. Nowadays, you can bet on anything from “who will be the 2018 Oscars host?” to “when will alien life be proven?”
And of course, political bets are also getting their fair share of exposure, with more and more people feeling confident about their bets with the wealth of information available to them online. Vanity Fair reports that the odds for bets concerning Trump’s impeachment happening before 2017 ends are particularly spikey at the moment, especially this week when Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, who is leading the investigation into Trump’s campaign ties to Russia.
Bets on Trump getting impeached this year
Donald Trump’s impeachment clamor is getting hotter by the day and various on- and off-shore US betting sites are already starting political betting events predicting Donald Trump’s impeachment date.
PredictIt, a research project of the Victoria University of Wellington, has been hosting a Donald Trump impeachment betting event since January. One of their US politics events is “Will Donald Trump be president at year-end 2017?” And this event, who has already traded 1,033,298 shares in its lifetime, is particularly fluctuating ever since Comey’s dismissal.
As of writing, people who think that Donald Trump will survive 2017 as the POTUS stand at 78 percent, which means 78 percent of those betting on the site think that Trump will make it through 2017. Yesterday, however, only days after the Comey firing, odds have hit record lows, making it to as low as 73 percent.
People over at Paddy Power, however, are even more confident that Donald Trump will get impeached before 2017 ends. Odds has hit its shortest this week, reflecting a 60 percent chance of Trump not completing his first year of term as president.
A Paddy Power spokesman tells the Independent as follows.
“In the past 24 hours alone [of May 11] we’ve seen money for Trump to be impeached in his first term, resulting in us cutting the odds from 10/11 into 4/6. We can attribute this to the news of Comey’s sacking. [That] is the shortest we’ve been for Trump to be impeached in his first term.”
The “year that Trump is impeached” event over at Paddy Power is also getting more fired up, recording the shortest odds for 2017. As of writing, people are waging a 25 percent chance that Trump is impeached by 2017, which is the highest compared to 14 percent for 2018, 6 percent for 2019, and 5 percent chance that he will finish his term by 2020.
Trump approval ratings continue to drop
A lot of the spikes on various betting sites are reportedly coming from the Comey sacking, adding fuel to the flame of impeachment clamor Trump is receiving for the past few months. And these calls for his impeachment are not surprising as Trump continues to suffer in approval ratings, down to a negative 40 percent over at Gallup this week. Numbers are even worse at the Quinnipiac University National Poll released this week, recording a near record low at a negative 36 percent approval rating.
And Trump is not just facing 2017 impeachment odds or negative approval ratings. According to Quinnipiac’s poll, 61 percent of voters feel that he is not honest, 56 percent feel he does not have good leadership skills, and 59 percent disapprove of how he is handling foreign policy (eg. Canada, North Korea policies). Even the media is getting more support than Donald Trump, with 65 percent of voters unhappy with the way Trump talks about the media.
And when asked, what is the first word that comes to mind when you think about Donald Trump, voters have named the words: idiot, incompetent, and liar at the top of the list.
— Philip Bump (@pbump) May 10, 2017
Americans’ disapproval of Donald Trump continues to worsen by the day but at the end of it all, are these enough to warrant an impeachment suit? Will Americans make or lose money from these impeachment claims?
[Featured Image by Alex Wong/Getty Images]