Internal Polls: Why Romney Thought He Would Win
Romney thought he would win come election night. Romney felt so certain that he wrote a victory speech but not a concession speech. But why did Romney think he would win? According to The New Republic, Team Romney’s internal polling data showed North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia as reasonably certain electoral vote victories and even put him ahead in a few other swing states including Ohio.
The Romney campaign’s chief pollster Neil Newhouse explains that the mistake the Romney campaign made was to track potential Romney votes against Obama primarily with people most interested in the election, and thus assumed most likely to be among the 57.5 percent of eligible voters who bothered to vote. What they did not calculate for was that these most enthusiastic voters turned out to be a smaller share of the electorate than they predicted.
“I’m not sure what the answer is,” Newhouse said. “The only ones we had that really seemed to be off were Colorado—a state that even Obama’s people tweeted they thought it was going to be one of their closest states—and the New Hampshire numbers, which seemed to bounce a lot during the campaign.”
Their internal calculations predicted that Romney could count on 267 electoral votes. The real question mark at the end was supposedly going to be Ohio, which Team Romney thought Obama was winning by 2 percentage points. But they figured that the supposed momentum Romney had accrued from the presidential debates would carry the day.
“We thought we had in the last 72 hours of campaign,” Newhouse said, “made up some ground from the challenging messaging period during the hurricane.”
This momentum turned out to only exist in the imagination. One Democratic pollster The New Republic spoke with offered the following hypothesis:
“During the final days of this campaign, only the most loyal partisans were picking up their phones when pollsters called—everyone else seemed to have had enough. (The pollster notes that this isn’t a general feature of campaigns; it just happened to be true of this one.)”
Newhouse doesn’t buy that explanation but can’t explain why they got it so wrong, either.
Why Romney thought he would win is an interesting question. Personally, I think they might have even considered the fact that coming up to the 2012 elections 37.6 percent of the US population considered themselves Republican while 33.3 percent were Democrat. So it’s just a matter of Romney convincing independents and getting out the vote, right? Yet six percent Democrats more than Republicans voted, showing just how enthusiastic Republican were for Mitt Romney.
Tags : neil newhouse, romney campaign, Romney internal pollings, Romney internal polls, Romney momentum, Romney swing states, Why Romney Thought He Would Win
Posted: November 30, 2012
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Nov 30, 2012
This is easy, You have terrible economic conditions, with huge hurricane smashing up everything and your guy is promoting Self Reliance, Reducing Entitlements and gets taped admitting he really does not care about 47% of the voters. Wrong Message, Wrong Time and poorly delivered at that.
Nov 30, 2012
One more reason why the Repubs are soooooooo clueless and out of touch. ANYONE who followed this knew Obama was going to win and easily at that. Offshore books that could legally take bets on this had Obama as over an 80% fave to win on Election Day. The fact Romney and his people – as well as equally cluess Karl Rove and Newt Gingrich – all thought they would win when everything showed clearly it was the other way around only shows how the Repubs better use this 2012 Election as a wake up call or else we might be talking about Repubs the same way we do Eastern Airlines and the Ford Edsel.
Nov 30, 2012
If you believe God is a 6" foot white man living on the planet " KOLAB", or other bizarre teaching of MORMON "church" you believe in anything. America is so lucky avoiding this disaster.
Nov 30, 2012
Every single poll consistently had President Obama ahead. Every swing state had him up by 4 and 5 points right up to the election. Maybeou the republican party should try and not insult so many people that might be a start. When a repub politician is running for office the more they talk and campaign the worse it gets. Then, you have Rush Limbaugh, Ted Nugent, Ann Coltier as well as John Sunnunu spewing vitriol, anger, racism and hatred and they really wonder why they keep losing elections. Maybe too if Romney wouldn't have listened to all the dummys on Fox News that told him he was going to win that would have helped. Get a grip and a clue to what the American people want.
Nov 30, 2012
HA HA!
Nov 30, 2012
What a bunch of hogwash… Romney thought he would win because of his son's business interests in the company who provided the electronic voting machines. I guess he must not have gotten the memo from his puppetmasters who decided to go with the other NWO frontman Obama… Wake up you fools, wake up to the 2-party dictatorship or you will be doomed!
Nov 30, 2012
There was massive fraud from the likes of ACORN which had people voting multiple times. Mentally disabled folks and illegal Somalians in Ohio were reportedly being bused and told how to vote. Machines in Florida and other places switched Romney votes to Obama. How about the 100% Obama voters for Philly? Enough fraud went on in swing states to rig the elections, and Americans will find out in time. Romney is our real President.
Dec 1, 2012
Yes, like when Bush won Florida and the votes were thrown in the ocean for Gore… Yeah, yeah!! Bulls___!! Obama won because someone picked the wrong candidate to run against him. Duh!!~
Dec 1, 2012
it's plain and simple, smart people were able to tell the difference of a fake candidate that really wasn't sincere in what he really believed in.
Dec 1, 2012
it's plain and simple, smart people were able to tell the difference of a fake candidate that really wasn't sincere in what he really believed in.
Dec 1, 2012
If only Americans can vote Romney will win.
Dec 1, 2012
Majority of people in Philadelphia are in welfare the reason why obama won. Lazy people.
Dec 1, 2012
tell it like it is!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dec 1, 2012
you know it!!!!!!!!
Dec 1, 2012
you are an idiot!!!!!!!!!!
Dec 1, 2012
@Defeat Bo,it's clear that you didn't watch FOX news this morning 11-30-2012,There was a poll worker arrested for marking BALLOTS to REPUBLICANS that had not been marked,President Obama would have won by a wider margin had the REPUBLICANS not tried so hard to buy this election.LMAO
Dec 1, 2012
@RONALD,the election is OVER so how can mittens win YOU 47% percenter LOL
Dec 1, 2012
Ronald Allan ,CAN you say BUSH and tricky DICK CHANEY,and keep saying it BUSH and TRICKY DICK CHANEY
Dec 1, 2012
Welcome to the pure capitalism, some are rich others poor, There is parable that says" No castle will build unless a shack is demolished. Romney was arrogant, out of touch , and his belief in cult was not help either. If GOP had a better candidate which I realize it is hard thing to find in that bunch, they had a better chance. it is foolish to think Democrats are all looking for hand out, the republican need to change their attitude and language. This country does not owe the GOP or their follower anything. If they want to participate in politic the first rule is to respect the people, second; don't be arrogant, third see what the majority want. Off course if you still believe in majority.
Dec 1, 2012
Search "Nathan Sproul fraud" to find out how a pro throws an election. The amazing thing is after trying to change election rules to make it inconvenient for Democrats, purge voting rolls of potential Democrats, hiring Mr. Sproul to trash Democratic registrations, etc. and they still lost!
Dec 1, 2012
I more than anything to see a recovery in the next 4 years…. but what if we don't? Can Obama blame the bush admin? if not can we put him in the column with jimmy carter as one of the worst presidents
Dec 1, 2012
What about Jesus or God, not sure which one, returning on day, Not to Israel and Bethlehem but to Independence, Mo. WTH? I know all religions sounds unbelievable but something about this new religion is cultish. Joe Smith?
Dec 1, 2012
Stop Whining about Ohio. Obama beat Romney so bad, even if he would not have won Ohio, Virginia and Florida, he still would have won the election. think Romney was so shocked because HE planned on cheating and it didn't work. WHy else would he believe his weird polls over every other one in the country? He knew something we did not?
Dec 1, 2012
He fell into the same trap that all the other republicans did. They refuse to listen to mainstream media. You're not going to get the full picture if you don't look at the full picture. I never saw a single poll that didn't show Obama slightly ahead. I knew it wasn't going to be a landslide victory. Maintream media is not liberal…it's accurate!
Dec 1, 2012
Pssst, you should first learn to spell DUMMIES before calling someone a DUMMY, DUMBASS.
Dec 1, 2012
So you'd rather opt to re-elect a complete incompetent Obama vs. a very competent Romney? Let me guess, you're a perpetual moocher that Obama said he would provide "gifts" for, right?
Dec 1, 2012
Exactly. Record black unemployment AND poverty, under Obama, and over 50 of Philly & Chicago voter precincts (mostlly black areas) voted 100% for Obama. Think about that. Not even a single vote for Romney, despite record unemployment/poverty in the black community under the Incompetent-in-Chief.
Three words sum that up: BLATANT REVERSE RACISM.
Dec 1, 2012
Yolanda, GUARANTEE you can't defend Obama's horrid policies, and I also bet you never looked into Romney's background. But hey, just hold out your hands and wait for the "gifts" Obama promised, and he's got your vote.
Dec 1, 2012
Many Republicans are in denial. They always move facts out of the way of a good story. As we speak, many GOP followers are still not learning the truth about Obamacare, the budget, guns and all that. So if they are in denial about the truth, did you really expect them to come to grips that Romney was going to lose?
Dec 1, 2012
YOU are a racist bigot. And if you don't know what that means, then look it up. Texas will be blue by the next election with all its electoral votes. This country is NO LONG only about white rights. Shame on you.
Dec 1, 2012
Mike Romney is predatory businessman, he is a rich man, and a good father.Good for him and his family, but Non of the above makes him a good president. American still don't know anything about him. Even McCain got more votes, and he was not the GOP sweet heart. Let me be more blunt so you know it is not all about "gifts" nickles and dimes or even hand out, American voted for the dumbest disgrace in the political history "W", twice. Why they believed in him. Although not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he had something in common with the rest of Americans, his faith. People truly hate the cult of Mormons and what Romney stands for. GOP really dis serviced their part by choosing this man to run.
Dec 1, 2012
Voter fraud, voter intimidation, forcing republican "watchers" to leave, lying to them and saying they already voted, Obama did not win fairly, not in 2008 or 2012, cheating is cheating and I think you people need to get over it. After you will have to live with the consequences that this man is "putting to America". Start crying now!!!!
Dec 1, 2012
He did not say that at all, open up your ears!!!!!!!!
Dec 1, 2012
Thanks Mikevikeus, I totally agree, no one with a brain, that understood what Obama plans for what was once a wonderful America, under his watch??? we are in big trouble, he already wants a blank check, good Lord, whatever happened to the people that actually did vote for him??? Mind boggeling!!!!!
Dec 1, 2012
NO, Romney was the right candidate!
Dec 1, 2012
Talking about denial, what?????? It is the liberal, progressive left that misleads, lies, cheats, steals, and belittles all of America, not the Republicans! Stay off the kool aid!
Dec 1, 2012
Did they ever finish counting the votes in Florida…lol They werent even couted except as an after though in the Presidential election
Dec 1, 2012
I disagree. There's no Kool Aid left. You drank it all up. True story!
Dec 1, 2012
Kathy we call it reading between the lines. What he said & what he meant is two different things, I grant you, but what he meant is what we walked away with. Call it what you like but his comment was ill spoken at best & at worst it probably helped to cost him the election. I don't really believe he stood a chance but that certainly did nothing for him.
Dec 1, 2012
Kathy Lucius-Pietron – Maybe lighten up on the meds.
Dec 1, 2012
Sumner ain't playin' ball anymore.
Dec 1, 2012
maybe they should stop watching FOX NEWS.
Dec 1, 2012
You know, there was no conspiracy, no suppression of voters by either party, no gifts to voters for their suppport, ad nauseum. What we saw was a very arrogant, very wealthy man who is used to getting most of what he wants in life. His hangers-on, esp. Karl Rove told hime this was in the bag and he was willing to swallow that story because it matched his vision of himself…the leader of the free world. Yes, his comments at the fundraising dinner hurt him, but not enough to cause him to lose 2 million popular votes. Voters are not stupid. We go with facts, our instincts, and whomever treats us with the most honesty and decency. Romney naver in his life had a connection to the real world, and voters just didn't buy it. Diod his religion hurt? Maybe some…I was raised (until a teen) as a Mormon and I can verify that by many definitions it is a cult mentality). But mostly it was a disonnected white male who went around the world w/his foot in his mouth and who scared many voters. His stance w/women's issues hurt him, his stance on many other issues hurt him. I hope he enjoyed his lunch w/Obama and his tour of the Oval Office (Oh, the irony) and now I hear the weather in the Caymans is nice this year. I hope he decides to take a very long family vacation.
Dec 1, 2012
mikevikeus , is that all you repugs can say? the gift crap? get over it and use something with substance. you sound as ignorant as mitt, saying what is on 3 by 5 cards,the memorize and recite b.s.
Dec 1, 2012
mikevikeus hey obama won, get over it, why don't you go back in your hole and come out in 4 years to meet the next democrat president, you f n repug!!!
Dec 1, 2012
Mainstream Media is like a lot of businesses in this country. It is all about the bottom line. Therefore, they are not always truthful with their reporting. They are infotainers, not true journalists, whether they are conservative or liberal
Dec 1, 2012
Kathy need to wake up from her sleep.
Dec 1, 2012
It is over with, so get over it, already. Yeah, I had a slight feeling, Romney might win at the very beginning, but that was a very slight feeling, way before I saw his true fake character, so… He seems, like a liar to me. Obama won and that is all that matters, if any one cheated it was the whole Repub. party, because of al the money that they thought they would win with. Lol! I guess money cannot buty everything, especially when you are as crooked and or a big womanizer, as Mitt. How can any female, even have is back? Really?
Dec 1, 2012
buy I meant
Dec 2, 2012
Voter fraud, voter intimidation…yes the Republican party tried these tactics in several states, most notably Florida & Pennsylvania, and still lost.
Dec 3, 2012
mikevikeus: This is another reason the Republicans lost by 5,000,000 votes when they thought they had it won; logical arguments were followed by hate-filled spiteful vitriol, just as the writer Kevin Stanfield above points out.
Dec 3, 2012
Kathy, you are right. Those Dems somehow managed to corrupt 5,000,000 votes; that's the population of Chicago + 2,000,000. That's some kind of well-oiled cheat-machine they've got going there. Haha!