President Donald Trump never misses an opportunity to remind his followers that he’ll probably be in office for two terms. Contenders for the next chair of the Democratic National Committee are lobbying for votes and touring the nation to learn how to make sure that doesn’t happen. Elizabeth Warren’s name is always in the mix when mentioning potential Democrats that will be expected to deliver a defeat to Trump in 2020, but a new poll shows she will lose.
The new Politico/Morning Consult poll asked nearly 2,000 registered voters to choose between Trump and Warren in the next presidential election. Trump edged out Warren 42 to 36 percent. This poll was conducted a few days after Warren won multiple news cycles for being silenced on the floor of the Senate when delivering a speech including a letter from Coretta Scott King.
After Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell invoked a rarely used rule, the Republican-majority in the Senate voted that Warren was to be barred from further debate related to the nomination of Jeff Sessions as attorney general. Warren then delivered the same speech on Facebook which has now been viewed more than 12.5 million times.
One would think that Warren’s popularity at the time this poll was conducted would help her beat Trump in a hypothetical poll. Even though Trump beat her by six percentage points, there’s one caveat that is a good sign for Democrats in the 2020 election.
“Asked for whom they would vote if the 2020 election were held today, 43 percent say they would likely vote for the Democrat, while only 35 percent say they would support a second Trump term. Twenty-three percent are undecided.”
According to this poll, some of the same voters that would pick Trump over Warren would also pick a generic Democrat over Trump.
Another interesting tidbit from this poll is that 87 percent of Clinton voters will still vote for a Democrat. Whereas 71 percent of Trump voters say they plan on staying loyal to Trump. There’s always going to be independent voters up for grabs, but this poll suggests that 13 and 29 percent of voters from the two major parties can be swayed either way in the next presidential election in 2020.
The Trump administration is currently in a tough spot to improve the president’s unfavorable poll numbers. There are multiple reports of several investigations looking into the former national security adviser’s contacts with Russian officials, remarks made by the counselor to the president pushing Ivanka Trump’s clothing line, and Trump’s handling of classified information in public. These reports will likely not help Trump’s poll numbers in the short term.
Stephen Bannon, Trump’s top advisor, has a 21 percent favorability in the latest poll. Thirty-three percent find him unfavorable and 47 percent have never heard of him.
“Most presidents experience a honeymoon period in their first few months. It looks like Trump’s is ending,” Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp, co-founder of Morning Consult, said. “The slate of bad news for the administration is catching up to him, although it’s important to note that his approval rating remains sky-high among people who voted for him in November.”
In the past three press conferences, Trump has only called on conservative outlets. Clearly in the wake of the resignation of Michael Flynn and his ties to Russia are not what Trump wants to be talking about. However, if a recent poll shows Trump can still beat Warren in the next election, maybe it’s time to answer the tough questions and move on.
The latest poll also shows that Trump’s favorability is 49 percent. That’s much higher than recent polls showing it as low as 40 percent a few days ago. When that number is in the thirties, Republicans will likely start to break away from the president. Trump’s only been in the White House for one month and if he can have low unfavorable numbers yet still beat Warren in a hypothetical race in 2020, that gives him plenty of time to deliver every promise that helped him win in 2016.
[Featured Image by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images]