Presidential Polls: Obama Maintains Lead With Three Days Left

Presidential Polls: Obama Leads Projections With Three Days To Election

Presidential polls have been relatively stable since Mitt Romney’s post-debate bounce sent his prospects of a win soaring. With three days until Election Day, nearly all projections show Obama with a small but comfortable lead, seemingly giving him a path to re-election.

A slew of battleground presidential polls released in the last few days shows President Obama maintaining a lead in the states necessary to put him above the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. HuffPost Pollster‘s projection now gives Obama 277 electoral votes in states either solid or leaning his way.

In the pivotal state of Ohio, HuffPost Pollster shows that an aggregate of presidential polls have Obama ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Ohio is seen as the pivotal point of the 2012 election, with the candidate who wins the Buckeye State more than likely to win the election.

Mitt Romney has run into some trouble in Ohio, as criticism of his Jeep ad claiming that Chrysler was moving production of the vehicles to China was met with criticism. Democrats called the ad misleading, and Chrysler executives even stepped in to decry the ad as untrue, hurting Romney’s standing in a state where the auto industry is a key part of the economy.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight now has Obama as having a more than 80 percent chance of winning on Tuesday. Though Silver has come under fire from pundits who criticize the certainly of his mathematical formula, he has held firm to his model and its prediction.

Silver wrote:

“President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday, his highest figure since the Denver debate and improved from 80.8 percent on Thursday.

“Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.”

Silver argues that the sheer number of polls showing Obama ahead in these swing states crushes the conventional wisdom that the race is a “toss-up.”

Presidential Polls: Obama Leads Projections With Three Days To Election
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