Election Maps Explain 2016 Presidential Race


On November 8, 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election to become the 45th President of the United States. The results were considered a major upset by some, especially those members of the mainstream media who were visibly disappointed by what they had to report on election night.

In the end, Trump soundly beat Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College. Although it took weeks for Michigan’s official count to come in, Trump was already at 290 on the map by the end of the night in CNN and Google’s analysis of the election. 270 electoral votes are needed to win. In the final count, Donald Trump received 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 232.

This election map is visibly, predominantly red.

Once the shock and surprise had settled, some sought to understand the discrepancies between the 2016 election predictions, which were almost uniformly called for Clinton, and the actual results.

The agitation of democratic voters was exacerbated by Hillary winning the popular vote. It did not dampen the spirits of Republicans, whose support for the electoral college grew considerably. Since Trump won, only 19 percent of Republicans reported supporting a hypothetical switch to the popular vote for presidential elections, down from 54 percent in 2011. Regardless, our system is a republic. Voters choose how their state will vote in the Electoral College, rather than choosing the president themselves.

One tool political scientists use to explain the results is an assortment of statistical maps. These election maps use different variables to explain trends across the political spectrum as they relate to the civic and demographic divides in the United States.

One widely circulated election map showed the United States divided by counties. Bolder white lines divide the states, but thinner white lines divide each county inside them. Each county is colored in red or blue according to if its constituents voted more for the republican or democratic candidate.

This election map shows significantly more red than the finalized electoral map. In fact, Trump won so many counties that by this system, he won 83 percent of the country. Looking at the data divided by county line, we see a picture of a decidedly red country. Even the closest state in the nation–hotly contended Michigan, where Trump won by three-tenths of a percentage point–looks decidedly red with the majority of Michigan’s counties pulling for Trump. Looking at the ratio of red to blue, Michigan appears to be a sure bet for Trump.

Although this map vindicates Republicans, it made little sense to those who emphasized Hillary’s lead in the popular vote. Enter the election map cartogram.

In this map, the sizes of states are rescaled according to their population. The mapmaker, Mark Newman, looked at the population density of the U.S. and stretched the geography of the United States so that areas with higher populations take up more space than areas with smaller populations. Large areas in the west and northeast of the map are colored blue, the south and center uniformly red, and densely populated Pennsylvania breaching the blue wall.

Newman’s additional, more detailed cartograms show the majority of the United States as a mix of purple. In fact, only Alaska, Hawaii, Massachusettes, West Virginia, and Oklahoma were solid colored states.

[Image by Win McNamee/Getty Images]

Comparisons to election maps of Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 wins further reveal trends that explain the 2016 presidential election results. Several states that supplied electoral votes to Obama in 2008 and 2012 gave their electoral votes to Trump in 2016. Among them, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio all went to Trump. The election maps of Obama’s win show decisive support for the democratic candidate in several key states.

Looking at the detailed county map of Obama’s victory further explains Trump’s win. While Trump won with 83 percent of the counties, Obama won 2008 with a much smaller margin–28 percent. Hillary pulled a little more than half the number of counties that Obama did. While her victories in the most populated cities were resolute, her appeal across the board was lacking.

Although the 2016 election results were a surprise to pollsters and those who followed them, analysis of the election maps paints a clear picture of how Donald Trump achieved the amount of electoral votes needed for victory. By dominating the geographic landscape, gaining enough of a margin of votes in populated areas, and flipping states believed to be part of an impenetrable blue wall, Trump won the presidency in 2016.

[Featured Image by Joe Raedle/Getty Images]

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