Will Trump Or Clinton Win? 2016 Election Odds Based On Election Poll Results And Early Voting In Battleground States Still Mean Big Hillary Clinton Win
The question “Will Trump or Clinton win?” has been burning up the internet over the last few days following FBI Director James Comey’s controversial message to congressional Republicans regarding alleged Clinton emails he thinks will be on an Anthony Weiner laptop. Many assume that this so-called “revelation” will change the outcome of the 2016 election, but the odds of this actually happening are fairly small.
"Dems continued to add to solid leads in early voting in several key swing states" https://t.co/tLAWIz1cgo @HillaryClinton @TheDemocrats
— Jennifer Granholm (@JenGranholm) November 1, 2016
Current Battleground States Polls
In battleground states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, the situation for Trump and Clinton hasn’t substantially changed from what it was prior to Director Comey’s explosive letter to his Republican friends in Congress. The reasons for this will be explained below.
As reported by the Associated Press, approximately 24 million Americans have already voted, with the results from such early voting showing Clinton with a massive 14-point lead in many of the all-important battleground states. This means that Hillary Clinton already had a sizable lead in actual votes before Comey sent his letter to Congress.
Hillary Clinton enjoys a solid lead in early voting with an estimated 19 million Americans having voted so far.https://t.co/oscrCpZo55
— Hillary In Pictures (@HillaryPix) October 29, 2016
As for future votes on Election Day itself, while in North Carolina it is true that both the Elon and Rasmussen Reports election polls now show the race a tie, since North Carolina was fairly close before Comey’s letter, this will represent a shift of only one or two points in the election polls there. And a tie in a state will not necessarily equate to a Trump victory.
The most recent Emerson presidential election poll in Virginia has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by four points. The Washington Post poll of Virginia gives Clinton a six-point lead over Trump. It’s unlikely Trump can change this in the few days left before the 2016 election ends.
"@HillaryClinton’s support was actually stronger among respondents reached on Sat & Sun" https://t.co/g4WYwOGv62 @HillaryforVA @vademocrats
— Jennifer Granholm (@JenGranholm) November 1, 2016
In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton is looking at a landslide win. In the most recent Franklin & Marshall poll of Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Trump 11 points in a four-person race. Pennsylvania was actually a state Donald Trump and Republicans had hoped to pull away from the Democrats, but it’s clearly not happening this election cycle.
General Election Polls Results
Despite the expectations by Donald Trump and his followers – and perhaps FBI Director Comey himself – Hillary Clinton has only lost one or two points in most recent election polls, even those that were taken following the FBI email announcement of last week.
The latest NBC News election poll released a few hours ago shows Hillary Clinton with a six-point lead over Donald Trump at 47 to 41 percent. This is virtually unchanged from the previous week’s poll by NBC. In addition, the POLITICO/Morning Consult election poll of yesterday has Clinton leading Trump 46 to 43 percent in a two-person race and 42 to 39 percent in a four-person race.
Clinton ahead 6 points in @NBCNews poll going into final stretch: https://t.co/ImCRLvb6aL
— NBC 7 San Diego (@nbcsandiego) November 1, 2016
Election forecasters currently think there is a high likelihood that Hillary Clinton will win over Donald Trump on November 8. Nate Silver suggests there will still be over a 72 percent chance of Clinton winning the 2016 election. So while the overall election race has tightened slightly by one – or perhaps two – points, it has not fundamentally shifted its direction because of these alleged emails.
As Hillary Clinton herself correctly surmised, her supporters will almost certainly discount the endless Republican attacks concerning emails. So how will Trump or Clinton win over voters in the other camp? At this point, they probably won’t because most people have already made their decision.
So, will Trump or Clinton win? All of the presidential election polls at the national and state levels suggest that Clinton is still the odds-on favorite to win big. It will not be the 10-12 point landslide some were hoping for, but a win is a win. There is even still the possibility of a Democratic-controlled Senate.
[Featured Image by Rick Wilking-Pool/Getty Images]
