Electoral College Simulator Still Predicts Mitt Romney Victory
The two University of Colorado professors who, with much fanfare, picked Mitt Romney to win the presidency recently reaffirmed their prediction that the GOP standard bearer will take the oath of office in January 2013. Their forecast even contains a slightly higher margin of victory for the Romney/Ryan ticket than their original August prediction.
Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry announced their updated forecast based on more recent economic data even before Mitt Romney began his post-debate surge. As a result, they continue to maintain that economic conditions favor the former Massachusetts governor and businessman. A University of Colorado press release provides further details on the October projection:
“According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.”
Their Electoral College simulator has picked every winner since 1980. The model uses state-by-state economic data including unemployment rates and changes in personal income in the run-up to the election.
The professors do give themselves some wiggle room, however, in case their presidential prediction falls flat:
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict.”
Tonight’s second presidential debate at Hofstra University on Long Island, along with other events in the remaining days before the November 6 election, could obviously have a bearing on the outcome, too.
Added: Prof. Berry said today that Gov. Romney “has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote.”