Election odds-maker FiveThirtyEight currently gives Democratic presidential nominee and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton an 84.6 percent chance of a November 8 election win, down from levels observed yesterday, as reported by the Inquisitr. Republican Donald Trump is seen having a 15.3 percent chance at taking the presidency.
In the latest polls, Clinton, Trump, Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein, and Libertarian Gary Johnson have maintained more-or-less steady levels of support, compared with recent weeks. In Real Clear Politics national poll averages featuring all four candidates, Clinton is reported to have 45.7 percent of voter support, Trump, 40.3, Johnson, 5.8, and Stein, 1.8.
In Real Clear Politics’ national poll averages featuring just Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the Democrat is seen with 48.6 percent of voter favor, compared with 43.1 percent for the Republican.
Based on latest polls, Real Clear Politics is calling the following battleground swing states each a “toss up“: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and Maine’s second congressional district. Pennsylvania is newly added to the “toss up” list.
FiveThirtyEight currently sees Hillary Clinton leading in Pennsylvania, all of Maine, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. The group sees Donald Trump leading in Georgia and Texas.
Latest Clinton-Trump polls in each of the “toss-up” states tracked by Real Clear Politics appear split.
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton in poll averages in Iowa, 41.7 to 38.0 percent; in Texas, 45.7 to 41.0; in Ohio, 44.8 to 43.7; in Georgia, 47.0 to 43.7; and in Maine’s second congressional district, 41.7 to 37.0.
Recent Pennsylvania polls demonstrate a slow slide in support for Hillary Clinton from mid-October until earlier this week. The former secretary of state had led Donald Trump by as much as six percent in a Quinnipiac poll that ended October 16. Since then, the Democrat’s lead over the Republican outsider has slipped to only three percent in the latest Remington Research poll, which concluded on October 22. This slow slip in Pennsylvania Clinton voter support may be among factors causing Real Clear Politics to move the state into the “toss up” list.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Democratic Party a 66.5 percent chance at taking control of the U.S. Senate. The political analysts give the Republican Party a 33.5 percent chance at maintaining their current control.
Libertarian vice-presidential running-mate to nominee Gary Johnson, Bill Weld, was recently quoted with regard to Hillary Clinton’s presidential run and the challenges facing third-party candidates, in light of the Commission on Presidential Debates decision to exclude both Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein from televised debates, as reported by The Young Turks.
“Against that backdrop, I would like to address myself to all those in the electorate who remain torn between two so-called major party candidates whom they cannot enthusiastically support,” Bill Weld stated. “After careful observation and reflection, I have come to believe that Donald Trump, if elected president of the United States, would not be able to stand up to this pressure and to this criticism without becoming unhinged and unable to perform competently the duties of his office.”
Weld described Trump as possessing “intellectual quickness” and “panache,” which he called “entertaining.” The former Massachusetts governor went on to state that Donald Trump made him “fear” for the “well-being of the country.”
“The presidency of the United States must be stable,” Weld’s missive continued. “and Donald Trump is not stable.”
“Donald Trump should not, cannot, and must not be elected President of the United States.”
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver suggested that the 2016 presidential race may be “tightening” in recent analysis, noting that both Clinton and Trump appear to be gaining independent voters and third-party defectors.
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