Trump And Clinton: How Do the Presidential Polls Stand On The Eve Of The First Debate?


One day before the first presidential debate of the 2016 election, the latest presidential polls seem to show Hillary Clinton maintaining a lead nationwide and in many of the battleground states. In fact, Clinton’s support in the polls seems to be firming up after Trump made slight inroads during recent weeks.

Over the last two weeks, Donald Trump appeared to be making progress in his attempt to usurp Hillary Clinton’s surprisingly strong position in many traditionally Republican states like North Carolina and even Georgia. More than this, he seemed to be coming back in the absolutely vital state of Florida.

The reason this matters to the Trump campaign is that Republicans – because of the layout of the electoral college nationwide – simply cannot win the presidency without winning Florida. But Clinton appears to be strengthening her overall battleground state position, according to The Weekly Standard. At the very least, Clinton no longer seems to be losing ground.

In fact, the national polls that have just come out on Sunday, September 25, show that Clinton is almost uniformly ahead across the nation. Despite some narrowing in the polls, the latest Washington Post poll has Clinton two points ahead of Trump nationwide in either a two-way or four-way race. While technically within the margin of error, a lead is still a lead.

In a possibly devastating blow to the Trump campaign, a poll of likely voters – rather than simply registered voters – showed a very different result. As reported by ABC News, the Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary Clinton with a 10-point lead nationwide among these voters.

The L.A. Times/USC tracking poll released today indicates Trump is four points ahead, but this poll seems to demonstrate a consistent bias in favor of Trump. In fact, at no point during the entire campaign has it ever shown Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump. This includes times when other polls have shown Trump as much as 15 points behind.

As reported by Real Clear Politics, the Morning Call national poll reveals that in Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Trump three points in a two-way race and two points in a four-way race. The CBS News poll of today shows Clinton with an eight point lead in Virginia in a four-way race. Presumably, her lead in a two-way race would be even greater.

A four-way race between Trump and Clinton in Maine shows Clinton with a three-point lead. This is a remarkable achievement in a state with an arch-conservative governor like Paul LePage, against whom even members of his own party in Maine have considered impeachment. Not surprisingly, LePage’s politics, opinions, and personal speaking style are closely aligned with those of Donald Trump.

It’s notable that in the batch of state polls released today, the only state Donald Trump leads in is Missouri. Of course, Trump still leads in a number of other Republican-leaning states that were not polled on the eve of the presidential debate.

While the current polls are not what Clinton was enjoying a month ago, they are hardly cause for panic in the Clinton campaign. To a large extent, Clinton’s fall in the polls was a direct consequence of her recent illness in which she contracted pneumonia and physically stumbled during the 9/11 memorial event.

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton shakes hands during a meeting at the United Nations General Assembly. [Image by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images]

Of course, all of this could change completely in the aftermath of tomorrow’s debate. Trump – who recently has been restrained by his staff from engaging in quite as many of his trademark Trumpisms – might indulge in a rant that drives his poll numbers through the floor. It can be assumed that Democrats are hoping he does something totally insane, such as stalking off the stage after screaming at the moderator.

Clinton could use the occasion to put on a clear show of strength, competence, and physical fitness sufficient to impress some of her detractors. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton could do something that could squander her current advantage. We will only know which way things go after the dust has settled tomorrow night.

[Featured Image by Alex Wong/Getty Images]

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