Gary Johnson Could Actually Win The 2016 Presidential Election In One Not-So-Crazy Scenario

Gary Johnson is continuing to take a strong place in the polls and the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidate now appears to have one viable path to the presidency.

Though the Libertarian Party has generally pulled under one percent in recent presidential elections, that could very well change this year with former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson on top of the ticket and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld as his running mate. Combined with an unpopular Republican candidate in Donald Trump, it has actually left the Johnson ticket with more than a prayer of becoming president.

Johnson’s path wouldn’t be in winning the 270 electoral votes needed to become president. Polls have shown Gary Johnson to be hovering around 10 percent support, with aggregated polling from Pollster putting him at 8.2 percent.

Instead, Gary Johnson could win by playing spoiler in one small, but very important state and then hoping that Donald Trump can make up ground on Hillary Clinton to do the rest.

A Republican Newspaper NOT ENDORSING TRUMP…Big News!
Gary Johnson snags newspaper endorsement @CNNPolitics https://t.co/8ksYUySTrL

— DEMOCRAT SOLDIER (@DemocratSoldier) September 4, 2016

The National Review outlined a scenario in which a third party candidate could win (in this case, they used Evan McMullin, but it actually fits Gary Johnson better). To win, the third-party candidate would have to win Utah and its six electoral votes. Then, Trump and Clinton would have to remain below 270 electoral votes themselves.

The National Review outlined how it could happen.

If, among swing states, Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, he’ll have 273 electoral votes, three more than the 270 he needs to win. If he wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Iowa, he’ll have 272 electoral votes. Likewise if he wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Nevada. If he wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire, he’ll have 270 exactly. If he wins Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire (the states political prognosticator Nate Silver had him leading in before the Khizr Khan dust-up), he and Hillary will be tied, 269 each. There are a few other scenarios along these lines, wherein a) Hillary has too few votes to win outright, and b) Trump ends up with fewer than 275 electoral votes. These are the most likely ones.

That would send the presidential election to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation gets a vote. With 32 states holding a Republican majority, that could give Johnson a viable path if he can convince enough GOP insiders that he would be able to work well with them and give them a chance to pass Republican legislation.

Even if he doesn’t win the 2016 presidential election, Gary Johnson already looks to be the most important third-party candidate in 20 years. Though Green Party candidate Ralph Nader was able to siphon away some votes from Al Gore in 2000, with some Democrats still blaming him for George W. Bush’s wins in Florida and New Hampshire, it was not since Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 that a third-party candidate drew a significant portion of the vote.

Johnson seems well on the way, especially in states where Donald Trump is weakest and where the Libertarian Party could be a good alternative for disenchanted conservatives. That is the case in Arizona, a state where Trump’s anti-illegal immigration rhetoric has upset more moderate Republicans and where Gary Johnson already has a big influence as the former governor of neighboring New Mexico.

“It could happen,” Republican Senator Jeff Flake, a frequent critic of Trump, told the Chicago Tribune. “Donald Trump has managed to make this an interesting state in terms of presidential politics, and not in the way that Republicans have wanted.”

The report noted that even if he doesn’t manage to win in Arizona, Gary Johnson could play a major role in who does win.

About a dozen of the most contested states will help determine which candidate gets the 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. In Arizona, where the Republican nominee has carried the state in 11 of the past 12 presidential elections, Johnson could play the spoiler, potentially putting 11 electoral votes in Clinton’s column.

Gary Johnson would still have a long way to go before he could pull off the shocking upset, but either way he’s poised to make a major impact on the political landscape in November.

[Photo by John Raoux/AP Images]