Gary Johnson Latest Poll Numbers: Libertarian Candidate Winning Over Independents and Millennials
It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
On the eve of the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, one candidate in the race for President of the United States has cause to celebrate, while others in the four-way matchup vie for trust in the American electorate.
According to the latest presidential poll from CNN and ORC International, Gary Johnson is gaining ground among voters, albeit by the slightest of margins. While Hillary Clinton maintains the tiniest of margins (5 percent) over GOP presumptive nominee, Donald Trump, it’s Johnson who is gaining the attention of political pollsters.
The results of a poll on January 17 showed that the Libertarian Party candidate captured 13 percent of votes in a hypothetical contest against Trump, Clinton and Jill Stein of the Green Party. Four days earlier, interviews were held via telephone with 1,013 adult American voters. The former secretary led with 42 percent, Trump followed with 37 percent, Johnson was next with 13 percent and Stein rounded out the poll with 5 percent of potential voters.
Gary Johnson is going to make it! https://t.co/AfvAnDD86y pic.twitter.com/37cqHdJMLX
— A Libertarian Future (@LibertarianFutr) July 17, 2016
Ironically, Clinton, after being cleared by the FBI and Department of Justice in her email server investigation — sparking cries of scandal from GOP leaders and others — and Trump, who announced his choice for a vice presidential running mate (Governor Mike Pence), didn’t receive poll bumps as pundits suspected. Instead, Gary Johnson’s numbers rose by four percentage points over 30 days.
A PPP poll conducted in the latter part of June showed Johnson with a mere 5 percent of support. According to a CBS4 Indy News report, Johnson gaining ground this late in the contest is an anomaly and represents the exception — not the rule.
“Typically, support for third party candidates fades as the major party tickets are set heading into their conventions. But Johnson’s support outpaces that of a typical third party candidate and may prove to have more staying power.”
Johnson’s surge in support has many baffled, but some adept pollsters are stopping short of calling the latest polls statistically significant, based on two data points. Based on the responses of people who “suggest” they support Johnson, only 40 percent say the field of candidates excites them. Of that group, only 6 percent say they are “extremely enthusiastic” about voting this year.
Sources say this may signal that Johnson, who is a long shot against Trump or Clinton, may not have a sustaining wave of support due to one critical factor: voter turnout. In short, Johnson is hoping the respondents on paper turn out in big numbers on Election Day (November 8).
Johnson does have support in a category that the real estate magnate and former Secretary of State continue to face challenges: endorsement among young voters, a key area where Senator Bernie Sanders owned to an extent. Both leading candidates need to have a strong showing in this voting block.
Polls show that third party opponents like Gary Johnson depend largely on the momentum among young voters, namely Millennials. The under-35 voters, some of which represent the “Bernie or Bust” movement, give Johnson a nod of 20 percent. Another 10 percent goes to Stein. Bear in mind that the younger populace had a large hand in helping Barack Obama win the White House in 2008.
Johnson’s support among non-white voters rivals Trump: he trails by only 3 percent (14 percent to 17 percent). Reason.com says not to count Johnson out of the race; he is still in the conversation, and deservedly so. Note: 15 percent of the vote in polls is needed for inclusion in the upcoming national debates.
@LamboTx1 15% in five national polls lands Gary Johnson into the debates with Hillary Clinton & Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/YLfeGvxxdt
— Ivan Magallon (@ivanmagallonga) July 17, 2016
“When Gary Johnson and the L.P. do disproportionately well among a growing and dynamic political bloc, that softens the ground for more libertarian argumentation across the political spectrum. Particularly among the most unaffiliated demographic of them all, Millennials.”
Clinton continues an uphill battle in answering questions about her integrity. Most of her campaign is clouded by scandal: Benghazi, email server Clinton Foundation.
Arguably, Trump and Johnson are “outsiders,” and are not part of the Washington elite. Should Hillary’s scandals widen, the “Never Trump” movement gains ground, can Johnson serve as a viable option for POTUS?
[Photo: AP Photo/John Raoux]
