Romney Leading Obama in New Presidential Poll
No one knows for sure what will happen on Election Day on November 6, but the Rasmussen polling firm, which has a very good record for accuracy, shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney three points ahead of President Barack Obama, 48 percent to 45 percent, in today’s national tracking poll. Rasmussen adds that Obama’s convention bounce has disappeared.
The polling firm notes that it’s too early tell whether the anti-American violence in the Middle East will have any political consequences for either candidate’s fortunes.
Many of the polls hyped up by the mainstream media in general operate with flawed methodology in that they tend to oversample Democrats and undersample Independents and Republicans and also based their results on registered voters rather than likely voters. Such polls are using a 2008 turnout model which many observers believe is inappropriate. Sampling could also be effected by voters simply refusing to answer the phone, not revealing their true intentions to the pollsters, and so on. The mainstream media obviously has its own agenda in terms of how it publicizes polling results and which ones it chooses to report on.
National polling, however, is far less significant than head-to-head matchups in so-called battleground states where it appears to be a tight race. A presidential election is a state-by-state contest, of course, with the winner determined by the Electoral College. Despite the headlines, no poll should should necessarily be accepted at face value without at least examining the underlying metrics.
Campaigns and parties typically conduct internal (i.e., private) polling but those results are kept under wraps unless leaked.
Last month, two University of Colorado professors, who have been correct in every presidential election since 1980, predicted that Mitt Romney would win the presidency using their own Electoral College simulator. The controversial pundit Dick Morris, who guided Bill Clinton to the White House in two elections, has been saying for months that Romney will prevail in the general election.
Do you pay any attention to polls?
Tags : Barack Obama poll, mitt romney poll, presidential polls, Rasmussen poll, Romney beating Obama poll
Posted: September 14, 2012
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Sep 17, 2012
your polls are only dreams. get real.
Sep 17, 2012
Will somebody give me 1 reason to vote for obama? Gas $1.87 when obama inaugurated, its been over $3.50 since, we are china's doormat, no bullets allowed in marines guns to protect libyan embassy from Muslim's, uemployment over 8%! NO LEADERSHIP! Why would you vote for this guy! We still at war in afghanistan!
Sep 18, 2012
Well in Australia I hope that Romney leads this USA back on track to lead the rest of the world….go Rassmussen
Sep 20, 2012
We will see. Rasmussen is the 2nd MOST ACCURATE poll out there.
Oct 6, 2012
Well, unemployment is now under 8%. During this recession the US lost 4.4 million jobs. Under the Obama administration, we have now created 4.7 million jobs. So we are finally back to positive. In fact, the labor bureau just revised the last 2 months jobs numbers up so those months weren't as bad as we thought. The dow is at a 5 year high – since 2008 its risen from almost 9000 to near 15000. Gas was $1.87, yes, because it was winter. Gas is cheaper every winter. Look at the summer before Obama was elected, Gas was over $4. The soldiers in Libya were NOT prohibited from carrying bullets – that lie was debunked awhile back. I suspect even though all of your points were either incorrect or fixed, you will still hate Obama and vote for Governor Romney, and that's fine. We aren't China's doormat though, we are still the greatest nation in the world. They have over 2 billion people and we still outperform them in most categories. (not all) If we had 2 billion americans and if we had been around for 5000+ years like they have, instead of only 200, imagine how far ahead of them we'd be. God bless America, and don't let partisan rhetoric and hate let you think this country is failing. Can we do better? Yes. Could you make a case against Obama and say there are better ways to do things? Sure. Can you honestly say he is destroying the USA, or hasn't gotten anything right?? Nope. Not if you are honest.
Oct 6, 2012
If one poll shows Romney ahead (but within the margin of error) and EVERY other poll shows him behind, many of them outside the margin of error, than this poll is clearly an outlier. Just because you want something to be true doesn't make it true. You could surely hope Romney defeats Obama in the last 2 debates, and performs well in the coming month, and overtakes Obama at the last second. But to pretend he's ahead now is simply fantasy.
Oct 6, 2012
Since when do presidential campaigns adhere to a fact based reality? Have you even SEEN or HEARD Romney's ACTUAL agenda, other than rhetorical intentions? Strikes me as alarming that we can have folks running for such an influential office without the prerequisite of a sound and itemized itinerary. (Not that Romney is pioneering this approach, but you get me). and yes, polls are media nonsense.
Oct 6, 2012
Because if you remember, last presidential election Obama told everyone its going to get worse before getting any bettter. People want to say well Bush is gone and he have to stop using that as an excuse.. Bush messed us up so much… its gonna take 8 years to see some sort of relief and it doesn't happen in 4 years sorry! If we can give BUSH 8 then i know Obama should get 8 to fix it only makes since.. Gas was going up to $ 4 when BUSH was in office it wasn't $1.87. since 2002. sorry!! the cheapest gas since BUSH took office was $2.20 per gallon and rose every years sense. I am out of work but, because OBama had congress keep extending unemployment benefits we where able to make it. Another thing Social Security should never be up to the States to operate that's BAD for everyone!!! They also saying he is spending to much money,, It was suppose to be spend especially on the people of US. Republicans just want to control it. Romney can't identify with the working class. He wants rich and poor, they don't care if you're white or black. If you not rich you don't belong and He's not working for you. The rich should pay more taxes. I shouldn't get a 30% tax cut on $20k per year, and a Rich person makes $20mil per year get the same cut. It will never balance you make 100% more than the working class simple math.
Oct 6, 2012
Not to mention he did catch the person who attacked us in 2001. We are the UNITED STATES.. Bush let that person get away or couldn't find him! But OBAMA did. don't forget that. That could have been your love in the towers……
Oct 14, 2012
beats me maybe they have a watermelon seed for a brain
Oct 14, 2012
Rochelle Jackson When you have a president who clames to be for the poor than why does he want the poor to pay more for energy needs ? Since you don't know the answer i'll tell you it's about goverment control
Oct 26, 2012
Except it's been the only correct Poll since 1980, other than that, yeah, pure fabrication.
Oct 26, 2012
Randy, your reading comprehension is a little off. The electoral college simulator has been accurate in every contest since 1980 not the poll. Also i did not say it was a fabrication just an outlier. Rasmussen is a reputable poll but with statistical samples there will always be error and outliers. Romney is now even after the debates so its a moot point anyway.