Mitt Romney Will Be The Next President, Says New Study
Ken Bickers from Colorado University Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, have correctly guessed the results of every presidential election since 1980. This year, the two political scientists predict that Mitt Romney will be voted into office over Barack Obama.
Bickers and Berry created an Electoral College forecast to predict the winner of the 2012 Presidential Election.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble.”
According to the model, Romney is expected to take home 320 electoral votes compared to Obama’s 218. The model focuses mainly on the electoral votes, but it also factors in the popular vote. Berry believes that Romney will win 52 percent of the popular vote and will be our next president.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner… The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
Berry and Bickers used state and national unemployment rates and per capita income, which measures disposable income, to develop their prediction model.
The two political scientists believe that presidential elections have less to do with gaffes and political commercial and more to do with the economic environment. And, since they’ve correctly picked the president since 1980, they may be on to something.
”(Our prediction model) suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy… It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”
Do you think President Obama will win a second term? Or will Mitt Romney be the next President of the United States?