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Algorithm Predicts Who’ll Croak Next On ‘Game Of Thrones,’ And It’s Not Jon Snow

By Shelley Hazen
Published on: 02:01 PST, Apr 22, 2016

No one can know when they’ll die, but if you live in George R.R. Martin’s world, you can be almost certain you’ll suffer a grisly and sudden death. Not content to wait and see who croaks in the upcoming sixth season of Game of Thrones, a group of computer scientists has created an algorithm to predict the next bloody death.

Their conclusions? Jon Snow shouldn’t be dead at all, Tommen Baratheon is the most likely to perish, and even the Mother of Dragons herself isn’t safe from the Grim Reaper.

The aptly-named algorithm “The Song of Ice and Data” was created by computer science students at the Technical University of Munich. According to the Telegraph, it boasts a 74 percent accuracy rate in predicting character deaths in both Game of Thrones the series and Martin’s epic novels.

The algorithm is the brainchild of PhD student Guy Yachdav, who’s a massive Game of Thrones fan, Deutsche Welle reported.

“Many have written to us that the project finally shows what can be done with our studies — finally something that doesn’t have to do with finance. This project has been a lot of fun for us.”

Yachdav’s research group usually uses its skills to answer “complex biological questions” using “data mining and machine learning algorithms.” These tools are usually used to diagnose, treat, and prevent disease.

The same methods were used to predict pretend deaths on the highly popular HBO series.

“The epic scale of the worlds created by George R. R. Martin provides an almost endless resource of raw multi-dimensional data. It provided the perfect setting for our class,” Yachdav said.

According to the Guardian, the Game of Thrones world contains 2,028 characters, or 30 per episode.

The algorithm combed the internet for its required data using applications developed by students, which then crunched the numbers, states Phys.org. The algorithm looked at the online “Game of Thrones Wiki” that’s run by the author’s acquaintance, the fan-based Wiki of Ice and Fire, Wikipedia, and Twitter. The project was interested in information derived from both the show and the novels.

The end result is a website that lists which characters are likely to meet their makers (and there are many to choose from) next season.

The students examined 24 characteristics, including age, title, gender, number of dead relations, and their popularity to determine their vulnerability. Their findings set up many beloved, and presumably safe, characters for execution.

Researcher Tatyana Goldberg explained the findings.

“We tested 24 characteristics — for example, how many relatives of the character are already dead. It turned out: If the mother is already dead, this will increase the likelihood that the character itself dies too. Men are more likely to die. Between the ages of 20 and 40 the character is most likely to be killed. If a character has managed to get past the age of 40, he’s safe.”

“Importance of figure” in the Game of Thrones world is also a factor, though it’s not clear if that’s a strike against the character or a protection, since Daenerys Targaryen has a 95 percent chance of death this season.

“It shocked me that Daenerys Targaryen is supposed to die. But I do not believe that yet. That just can’t happen,” Goldberg said.

The algorithm’s other conclusions: Sansa Stark likely won’t get the axe, but King Tommen mostly will, since kings in Westeros tend not to have long life expectancies. Theon Greyjoy is more likely to die than his captor, the psychotic Ramsay Snow. Stannis Baratheon, who is dead on the show but not in the books, should’ve been murdered last season, according to the data. Sadly, his loyal follower Davos Seaworth is also not long for this world, nor is Petyr Baelish (but we doubt anyone would cry over that).

And what about Jon Snow? For Game of Thrones fans devastated by his multiple stabbing at the hands of the Night’s Watch last season, you’ll be happy to know that the algorithm has declared he should still be alive, with only an 11 percent chance of death.

You can view the results of the algorithm on The Song of Ice and Data website, here.

[Image via HBO]

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