When should baseball GM’s pull the trigger on trades?
With a little more than a week to go until the MLB trading deadline, one has to wonder when should a team GM pull the trigger on a trade that may put his team over the top, or when should a GM stand pat at wait to get pieces in the off season?
The hardest job any sports GM faces is balancing the short term goals against the long term health of the team. Thanks to the addition of the Wild Card round of the playoffs, this job is more difficult then ever.
Since the Wild Card round was added to the MLB playoffs, more teams stay in the race longer, and are less willing to sell off pieces. For example in the relatively weak AL Central the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Minnesota Twins are still in the race to win the division. None of these three teams can afford a sell off since they could still win the division.
The Detroit Tigers face a very interesting dilemma. While they are in first place, and why their starting pitching has thus far over achieved, they may be the most deficient first place team in baseball
. Their offense is horrendous, their bull pen is shaky, and at some point their starting pitching is going to return to earth. Especially considering that the third link in the starting rotation is 20 year old rookie Rick Porcello.
Since the Tigers are more that one piece away, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski should not start dealing away pieces of even minor leauge prospects. Even though this would mean another year before the Tigers potentially reach the playoffs. The long term health of the club would be greater, and there is a better chance to get what this team needs in the off season.
The situation for the Philadelphia Phillies is almost the exact opposite. This is a team coming off a World Series title, with a strong offense, and a starting rotation that has thus far under achieved. Phillies GM Rueben Alamo Jr. is one move away from another strong post season run.
In their case, the Phillies should make a deal with Toronto for pitcher Roy Halladay. If the price is just a short stop prospect and a back of the rotation starter, this is a reasonable trade for the Phillies and could very well lead them to another World Series ring.
In the end every GM in baseball must take the next few days and consider where they could reasonably finish as they stand, after that they must consider how many moves away they think they are from the post season, and then finally if they feel they are one or two moves away start dealing.
