With just two days to go before the New York primary elections, the latest polls show races that look largely unchanged on both the Democratic and Republican sides, though the Democratic race may have tightened somewhat, and the GOP contest appears even more one-sided than in earlier polls.
Hillary Clinton holds on to a comfortable, double-digit lead over Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race, while Donald Trump has expanded his already overwhelming advantage over his Republican opponents.
— The News Network (@TheNews_Network) April 17, 2016
The newest individual poll was conducted by CBS News and YouGov from April 13 to April 15, which for the Democrats means that at least partially, the results would factor in what took place on April 14 when Clinton and Sanders squared off on a Brooklyn stage in what turned out to be their most heated, acrimonious debate of the nine between them so far.
Voters who missed the fireworks can watch a full replay of that debate between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in the video below.
The CBS News/YouGov poll in New York was released on Sunday, April 17, and it surveyed 1,050 likely voters who called themselves Democrats and 705 on the Republican side. The Democratic YouGov poll carries a 4.4 point margin of error, but in the Republican poll, the “MoE” is 5.9 percentage points.
But the relatively large margin of error for Republicans should make no difference for the party’s frontrunner, New York businessman and native Donald Trump, who leads the GOP field by a whopping 33 percentage points, according to the CBS News/YouGov survey. Trump takes an unassailable 54 percent of Republican support while Texas Senator Ted Cruz takes 21 percent, edging past Ohio Governor John Kasich with 19.
For the Democrats, former New York Senator and United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds on to a 10 point lead — unchanged from the last CBS News/YouGov poll way back on April 1. The share of the vote also remains the same as in the earlier YouGov poll, with Clinton gathering 53 percent and Sanders 43 percent.
But compared to the most recent previous poll, an NBC News 4/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll completed on April 13, Sanders appears to have gained on Clinton. That poll showed the former Secretary of State with a 17-point lead.
But there have now been 11 separate polls released in New York in April ahead of the primary which will be held on Tuesday. In every one of them, Clinton has held a lead of at least 10 points, with a gap as wide as 18 points in an April 7 Emerson College poll.
Most of Clinton’s strength comes from New York City and its suburbs, where according to Marist College poll, Clinton tops Sanders by 26 points in the city and 24 in the suburbs.
The two are neck-and-neck in the state’s rural areas, though according to an MSNBC news report seen in the video below, Sanders’ call for a nationwide ban on fracking may be hurting him with voters in the upstate, rural areas.
According to the weighted polling average of all New York primary polls, compiled by the election projection site FiveThirtyEight, Clinton leads Sanders by 14.4 points, with 53.1 percent to just 38.7 for Bernie Sanders.
FiveThirtyEight also calculates the probability of each candidate winning any given election. The site now projects Clinton with a 99 percent chance of victory, with Sanders clinging to a threadbare one percent hope. The most likely split of the vote, according to the FiveThirtyEight statistical projection as of April 17, is Clinton with 56 percent to 41.4 percent for Sanders.
MORE ELECTION COVERAGE FROM THE INQUISITR:
- Bernie Sanders Polls: Huge Opportunity In New York — Black And Hispanic Voters Are Undecided
- Who Will Win New York Primary? Polls Show Bernie Sanders Lags Behind Clinton, Trump Runs Away With Race
- Bernie Sanders Can Win Democratic Nomination — If He Reaches These Goals In Upcoming Primaries
- Donald Trump’s Troubles: Campaign Blunders, Growing Opposition Likely To Sink Trump’s Campaign
- Bernie Sanders Curtails Hillary Clinton’s Lead In Delegate-Rich California And New York
- Bernie Sanders Turnout: Young Voters Say They Back Sanders But Don’t Show Up To Vote For Him
- National Polls: Clinton’s Lead Against Bernie Sanders Is Almost Gone
On the Real Clear Politics site, which calculates polling averages using a somewhat different formula than FiveThiryEight, Clinton holds an average 12.5-point lead over Bernie Sanders.
But Hillary Clinton has another significant advantage over Bernie Sanders in New York. The primary there is “closed,” meaning that only registered Democrats may vote. According to the CBS News/YouGov poll, Clinton holds a 19-point lead over Sanders among registered Democrats.
[Featured Photos By Justin Sullivan/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images]