Brokered Conventions Not Impossible For Both Parties This Year

Brokered conventions, with their connotations of backroom deals in cigar smoke-filled rooms, may seem a thing of the past. The last time the Democrats had a brokered convention was in 1952. The Republicans haven’t had a brokered convention since the Bicentennial. Yet, with 16 primaries and caucuses left to go for the Republicans and 20 for the Democrats, brokered conventions are looking like a distinct possibility for the Republicans, and not impossible for the Democrats.

To win the nomination for the Republican party, a candidate must have the votes of 1,237 delegates. As told in the U.S. News and World Report, GOP delegate Curly Haugland of North Dakota reminded voters that they don’t choose the candidates directly.

“The media has created the perception that the voters choose the nomination… The rules are still designed to have a political party choose its nominee at a convention.”

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If no Republican candidate has 1,237 delegates at the first vote of the convention in Cleveland, then most of the delegates are free to vote their conscience on second, third, fourth, (or however many it takes) votes. The rules governing how delegates are required to vote in such conditions vary from state to state. To add to the confusion, the rules of a brokered convention are not carved in stone. The controversial Rule 40, which requires candidates to have the majority of delegates from eight or more states in order to be considered for the nomination, is only four years old. The Republican National Committee will be meeting in Florida this month, and as part of that meeting, the Standing Committee will be “tweaking” the rules, as the Daily Caller described. Rule 40 could be altered or abolished.

Haugland is proposing a rule change that would allow any candidate who earned at least one delegate during the primary process to submit his or her name for nomination at the national convention. This would mean that candidates who’ve already dropped out, like Marco Rubio or Ben Carson, could still be considered. It’s worth noting that Rubio is currently third in the delegate count, with 171 delegates, and he has not yet released them to vote their conscience. John Kasich has 143 delegates, Ted Cruz has 532, and Donald Trump is leading with 743 delegates.

As previously reported in the Inquisitr, both Trump and Cruz have urged Kasich to drop out of the race rather than split the party. Trump flat-out accused Kasich of stealing “his votes.” The Huffington Post predicted a few days ago that Kasich would be the Republican nominee, with Rubio as his running mate.

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For the Democratic race, the magic number to avoid a brokered convention is 2,383. At present, Hillary Rodham Clinton has 1,756 delegates, including 469 superdelegates. Bernie Sanders is behind, at 1,068 delegates, including 31 superdelegates. However, Sanders won the Wyoming caucus yesterday, his eighth win of the last nine Democratic primaries and caucuses. Superdelegates are permitted to change their minds. Clinton may be ahead, but her victory is far from guaranteed. 1,941 Democratic delegates have not yet been allocated to either candidate.

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The New York primary, with 291 Democratic delegates and 95 Republican delegates, will be April 19. Some political analysts are predicting that New York will be the make-it-or-break-it point for Sanders. On the one hand, Clinton was the senator from New York after being First Lady. On the other hand, Sanders was born and raised in Brooklyn. Both can expect a lot of support from New York. It is too early to predict whether New York’s 291 delegates will be enough to let Clinton win the nomination without a brokered convention.

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A brokered Democratic convention would give the superdelegates more power. The purpose of superdelegates is to limit multiple rounds of voting. Superdelegates include, but are not limited to, all Democratic members of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and sitting Democratic governors. Although superdelegates are described as being pledged to one candidate or another, it’s more a statement of intention than a pledge — they are free to change their minds.

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Will Trump and Clinton keep their respective leads, or will 2016 see the first brokered conventions in decades? For more information on how brokered conventions work, read this article from CNN.

If both parties have brokered conventions, this election will be one for the history books.

[Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images]