If the latest 2016 Wisconsin primary polls are accurate, the results of the state’s elections will fall in the favor of Bernie Sanders for Democrats and Ted Cruz for Republicans.
Both candidates have a hard road ahead of them to win their party’s 2016 nomination. Bernie lags behind Hillary Clinton by more than 250 delegates, as does Ted behind Donald Trump. Nate Silver even professed that it is almost mathematically impossible for Sanders to win the 2016 race. But the faithful supporters of each respective Democratic and Republican candidate are looking to the Wisconsin primary polls with hope.
On the Republican side, Cruz is ahead in every single recent Wisconsin poll taken ahead of the primary. That’s especially good news for Ted as the contest is winner-take-all — meaning all 42 delegates are likely to go to him. As he still trails Donald Trump by more than 250 delegates overall, each of them are vital.
Luckily for Cruz, he doesn’t have much to worry about if primary polls hold true for Wisconsin‘s 2016 results. In at least five surveys taken the week before the state marks their ballots, Ted beat out Donald. In questionnaires from both Fox Business and Marquette Law School, he was a full 10 percent in front of Trump — with about 40 percent of the vote to his runner-up’s 30 percent.
On the other hand, the results from Public Policy Polling only showed Cruz with a one percent lead on Donald. That poll had the largest sample size of the bunch, with 768 likely voters asked about their preferences. It was also recent, taken just a week before the Wisconsin primary. Another poll, from CBS News and YouGov, landed somewhere in the middle, with a six percent spread between Trump and Cruz.
For Democrats, 2016 Wisconsin primary predictions have changed wildly in the past week. Before a poll was released last Wednesday that showed the Wisconsin results tilting toward Sanders, many pundits were calling the race for Hillary Clinton.
Now, a week later, four more Wisconsin primary polls have been released, and only one of the results, from Loras College, calls a win for Hillary. The Clinton-positive poll predicted the race going 47-41 in her favor, but it also has by far the smallest sample size of the new sets of data.
Alternatively, three other polls from last week all point to a Wisconsin primary victory for Bernie. Fox Business, the largest of all the polls, with a sample size of 860 likely voters, called the results at 48 percent for Sanders and 43 percent for Hillary. Another from Public Policy Polling, 49-43. That’s no small victory, as the state offers 96 delegates, 10 of whom are superdelegates.
A breakdown of a prior Wisconsin poll’s demographics revealed trends similar to the rest of the Democratic race across the nation. As usual, Sanders is trouncing Clinton among young voters. A lack of minority constituents in the state, like Latinos and African Americans, also complicates Hillary’s position — these two groups have been two of her most loyal sources of support on the road to 2016. Alternatively, older voters, particularly those 75 and older, are heavily locked up for Clinton in such results.
A column by Winston Ross in Newsweek conjectured that those demographics could be key to determining what will happen at the Wisconsin polls. The Wisconsin primary, like Michigan, is open to independents, according to FairVote.
“Sanders’ Michigan win was an important one because everyone can now point to it as evidence that the pundits and the polls are lying to you. If he wins in Wisconsin, that lends credence to the idea that Michigan was no fluke, and that [Bernie] belongs in the race.”
Check back Tuesday evening to see if the 2016 Wisconsin primary polls correctly predicted the Democrat and Republican results — with Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz claiming victory.
[Photo by AP Photo/Mel Evans]