Donald Trump Takes A Serious Hit In Polls This Week

Trump’s chances of winning the GOP nomination has fallen from 67 percent to 44 percent over the last week, according to PredictIt, an online predictions market which is run out of Victoria University in New Zealand. Ted Cruz, in contrast, hit 34 percent from 14 percent in the last week. Also, the probability that Republicans will have a brokered convention to decide the nominee rose to 69 percent from 43 percent a week ago. Both are bad news for Trump.

April 5 is Wisconsin’s primary election. Donald Trump needs to win Wisconsin to secure the nomination, but it’s predicted that Ted Cruz (and Democrat Bernie Sanders) will win. Ted Cruz was interviewed Thursday by a Milwaukee radio station.

“I think the whole country is looking to Wisconsin right now to make a choice in this race, and I think the choice Wisconsin makes is going to have repercussions for a long time to come.”

There has been a whirlwind of controversy around Trump this week. His campaign manager is charged with simple battery for an altercation with a reporter. Also, Trump made a statement that women should be punished for abortions, which he tried to recant, merging women on both sides of the debate in a fury and giving Hillary Clinton some political fodder. Trump also met with the Republican National Committee chairman, Reince Priebus, on Thursday, who reportedly told Donald Trump that his disparaging comments about the RNC were a problem.

Trump has frequently commented that he is being treated unfairly by the RNC and he is not in favor of the brokered convention. He also said he would not support another GOP nominee, perhaps jeopardizing his 50 delegate win in North Carolina which has a loyalty pledge. South Carolina GOP Chairman Matt Moore said this was only conjecture. “No one is seeking to unbind South Carolina’s national delegates,” Moore said.

A GOP voter from Oshkosh, Linda Ruddy, summed up her thoughts on Trump.

“He’s rude. He’s arrogant. He’s a loose cannon. He’s insulting to women.”

Even Trump supporters can hardly argue with Ruddy’s comments. According to the Los Angeles Times, Donald Trump is the least popular American politician in three decades. Yet, he still holds the lead for the Republican presidential candidate.

If Cruz wins the delegates in Wisconsin, then Trump will have to win 57 percent of the remaining states to have the 1,237 delegates required to win the nomination. Wisconsin has 42 delegates.

If Trump doesn’t secure the GOP nomination, there will be a brokered convention in which 80 percent of the delegates can choose whoever they want. Predictions this week for that probability jumped from 43 percent a week ago to 69 percent, according to Reuters.

Trump’s current support tracking poll is ranging from 37-45 percent, which is the lowest since February when there were several more candidates in the race to share supporters. The same poll shows that Ted Cruz is up at 31 percent, almost twice what he had on Super Tuesday.

Donald Trump’s antics with Cruz’s wife has also lost him some supporters. He recently tweeted pictures of his former model wife and Cruz’s wife next to each other, insinuating that his wife was prettier. That controversy dropped support from male voters but it didn’t change his rating with female voters, only because 60 percent of them have a negative opinion of him already.

.@ChuckTodd: I won't be shocked if Trump loses Wisconsin “because of civility." https://t.co/lMX5zQpfpW #MTPDaily pic.twitter.com/cegYnSeJXb

— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) April 1, 2016

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has given his support to Ted Cruz, right on the cusp of Trump’s first campaign stop in Wisconsin.

Though Trump has some promising ideas about the future of America, his frequent inappropriate outbursts, temper tantrums, and snide remarks have made many wonder if he’s presidential material. These uncertainties have given Ted Cruz a major boost in the campaign, making him a serious contender for the GOP nomination.

[Image via Gene J. Puskar/AP]