Why Cadel Evans can’t win the Tour de France

Sitting at a lowly 26th in the general classification of the 2009 Tour de France with all of his major rivals in front of him, it seems it’s not Australian cyclist Cadel Evans’ year yet again, after finishing second the last two years. But can he ever win the event?

There are several factors militating against him. First is that the teams around him are often flawed – no more than this year, where even before the two late withdrawals by team mates through association with doping he was going to struggle to get the support from Silence-Lotto that the likes of Lance Armstrong, Carlos Sastre and the Schleck brothers enjoy in their teams. This is mostly due to Euro economics: the most popular teams want European faces at the head of their teams because it makes them more attractive to sponsors to get attention from the media.

Armstrong fought this obstacle, which applied to him too as he was American, by managing to build a team sponsored by American interests. There have been muted discussions about mounting an Australian-flavoured team to take on the Tours, and there would certainly be enough Australian cycling talent to build a team full of compatriots capable of challenging for major honours and supporting Evans in a serious tilt at the top of the pedestal in Paris. However, unless a major Antipodean sponsor has significant Euopean interests, it is hard to see any Australian-based company justifying the millions upon millions of dollars needed to fund a team to enter the Tour de France.

The other major obstacle to Evans’ prospects is, naturally, the other riders in the race, but it’s not as simple as that. Tour cycling is not just about teams banding together, but Evans has fallen victim in the past to major contenders from rival teams joining together to push him out of contention by working him over on the tough mountain stages, with riders like Sastre and Alberto Contador taking turns to jump the field and tire Evans out in chasing down every attack.

The only hope in 2009 for Evans is if he can somehow forge a temporary alliance with one of the other contending riders, like a Sastre or LeipheimerKirchen, to get some of his own back on the dominant Astana team. If Evans can find a way to communicate with his European counterparts the need for them to bind together to fight the strong team of Armstrong and Contador, there may be a chance for Evans to use his obvious natural ability and work ethic to grind his way back into a position where he can contend for the maillot jaune once again.

Maybe next year, Cadel.