Tonight’s Debate Has Much At Stake For GOP Candidates


There is a lot at stake for the candidates in the Republican debate tonight at 8:30 p.m. EST/7:30 p.m CST on CNN.

For Ohio governor John Kasich and Florida senator Marco Rubio, tonight is their final opportunity to make a positive impression on voters, as this is the last debate before their respective states vote in winner-take-all primaries next Tuesday, March 15.

Why Tonight’s Debate Matters to Rubio

Marco Rubio before tonight's debate
Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., aims for momentum in debate tonight [Photo by Paul Sancya/AP]
Rubio has slipped badly in the polls recently. In the last debate, he was heavily criticized for getting too personal in his attack, a move he now regrets, as he told an MSNBC town hall meeting.

“That’s not something I’m entirely proud of. My kids were embarrassed by it, and you know? If I had to do it again, I wouldn’t, but not on the other charges.”

There are 99 delegates at stake in Tuesday’s Florida primary. Rubio has been campaigning there heavily for a week, which will likely come up in the debate tonight. Thus far, he has ignored calls from the other candidates to drop out.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Trump with a 15.6 percent lead over Rubio in Florida.

What’s At Stake for Kasich in the Debate

Kasich also has a lot riding on tonight’s debate. There are 66 delegates up for grabs in Ohio. A brand-new Fox News poll shows Kasich with a five-point lead over Trump there, which the former congressman will likely bring up tonight.

The poll showed Kasich leading Trump by one point among men, but by 10 among women.

At the last debate, on March 3, Kasich refrained from attacking Trump, seeking instead to appear as the “adult in the room.”

As a result, pollster Frank Luntz declared that his focus group concluded the following.

Whether or not Kasich changes tactics tonight will be telling. Trump could also go after him in the debate.

However, Kasich is currently far behind in the delegate count; he has 54, compared to 151 for Rubio, 359 for Texas senator Ted Cruz, and 458 for Trump.

Which, again, is why tonight’s debate is so important for Kasich in winning Ohio and possibly staying in the race afterward. His goal appears to be to win as many delegates as possible and keep Trump from the 1,237 he needs to officially capture the GOP nomination.

Tonight’s debate is his final choice to make his case before the March 15 contests.

What Ted Cruz Hopes to Accomplish Tonight

With Rubio’s decline and Kasich’s low delegate count, Cruz is widely seen as Trump’s biggest obstacle tonight.

He is touting the endorsement of former candidate Carly Fiorina.

Popular conservative talk show host Mark Levin has also endorsed Cruz.

“My support [for Cruz] is because I honestly believe that this is a man who understands where this country has been and where it needs to go.”

What Trump Hopes to Prove Tonight

Trump, 69, has thus far won 15 of the 23 state contests. He hopes to gain momentum from tonight’s debate into next Tuesday’s contests. In addition to Florida and Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and the Northern Mariana Islands (a U.S. territory) will also be voting.

There is a total of 367 votes up for grabs in those contests.

The real estate mogul has made traction by not backing down from his promise to build a wall at the Mexican border and to have Mexico pay for it.

He has also been quick to call out with pejoratives those whom he believes have turned on him.

While such tactics typically don’t work well in U.S. politics, Trump continues to dominate in the polls and win the key primaries, as he did this Tuesday with victories in Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawaii (Cruz won the only other contest, in Idaho).

Tonight’s debate will tell if this trend will continue.

The last scheduled GOP debate is March 21.

[Photo by David J. Philip/AP Images]

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