The Iowa caucuses are being held on Monday, and the final 2016 presidential poll released on Saturday showed that there really is no clear-cut winner. For the Democratic candidacy, Hillary Clinton has a slim lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders even though the latter was said to have been doing very well in Iowa earlier in the week. In the Republican Party, Donald Trump leads over Texas Senator Ted Cruz with Marco Rubio’s support rising.
Even with the leads by both Clinton and Trump in their respective parties, the margins are quite narrow and no one is a true favorite.
According to the Des Moines Register, Donald Trump has pushed ahead as the first votes for the 2016 presidential election are about to be cast. The thing is, while Trump is on top right now, his lead is so slim that it could change by the time voting happens on Monday.
J. Ann Seizer, pollster for the Iowa Poll, says that it is still anyone’s race.
“The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race.”
As of Saturday evening, Trump was at 28 percent in Iowa while Ted Cruz is right behind him at 23 percent. Support is fading quickly for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie and their supporters are now starting to back Marco Rubio who has seen his backing on the rise.
On the other hand, Market Watch believes that Donald Trump is the “red-hot favorite” to win the Iowa Caucuses on Feb. 1 and then take the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9. Betting odds have Trump as a 1-2 favorite in Iowa and then a 1-4 favorite in New Hampshire the week after.
The betting odds in the Democratic Party have Hillary Clinton as the 4-9 favorite in Iowa, but that is where things stop for upcoming votes. Bernie Sanders is currently the leading candidate in the odds as a 2-9 favorite in New Hampshire.
The margin of error in the 2016 presidential polls is four percent, and Saturday’s results have Hillary Clinton with a 3 percent lead over Bernie Sanders: 45-42. Like the GOP nomination, that is hardly a runaway and could end up changing just by Monday’s caucus.
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has just 3 percent so he isn’t even in the picture.
The problem for Hillary Clinton still seems to be those “top secret” emails that have caused so much controversy. They have undoubtedly caused a good bit of her support to fall and her backers to start looking at the other candidates in the Democratic Party.
CNN now reports that the 22 emails from Clinton that contain “top secret” information will not be released by the State Department. While her opponents could start using the emails against her again, the fact that they won’t be released could work in her favor.
If the emails aren’t going to be released, then there is nothing more that really can be said about them. Clinton could carry on with her campaign knowing that further info won’t be given to her opponents or the public and more important matters can be addressed.
A lot is going to be told by these first votes cast in the 2016 presidential election in the Iowa caucuses. It’s going to be very telling and give a bit more of a path that experts can see and know how things may go.
The 2016 presidential polls are seeing some gaps that used to be very big in size, dwindle down and become much smaller. Donald Trump’s lead is no longer the gigantic amount that it used to be over Ted Cruz. Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, but by nowhere near the amount it used to be. Things are getting even more serious now and races are tightening up.
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