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‘Star Wars’ Box Office: Here’s What ‘The Force Awakens’ Will Earn Its Opening Weekend

By Aric Mitchell
Published on: 05:23 PST, Dec 11, 2015

Star Wars box office expectations are understandably high just one week shy of the newest film’s release, but up till this point, few analysts have weighed in on an exact total for opening weekend.

Most in the industry are expecting the film to eclipse most every box office record and cross the $1 billion mark with ease.

As Phil Contrino predicted in a Hollywood Reporter piece in April, the film could easily surpass previous records, and become the highest grossing film of all time, especially “if it pleases the fans” and simultaneously appeals to children.

In the THR report, Amobee Brand Intelligence (ABI) was the only organization to put a range on the opening weekend, and they did so based on the “digital consumption of the trailer,” which “vastly exceeded interest in Furious 7,” a film that grossed $1.15 billion in its first 19 days.

Based on its data, ABI predicted a global debut of $533.2 million to $539.5 million, but there is reason to think that figure is too low.

For starters, it is estimated that the Star Wars box office for The Force Awakens will be helped along by “the widest release ever, meaning at least 4,500 locations in North America (Twilight: Eclipse went out in 4,468), although Disney won’t comment,” THR noted.

(It has since been revealed that the number of screens will only be 3,900, according to Scott Mendelson of Forbes, see tweet linked below.)

Few competing films will be released in anticipation of the massive blockbuster, as well; and, with good reason, since competing films would likely get trounced and forgotten.

For Cotrino, the Star Wars box office take will be comparable to both the Avengers huge opening weekend and the longevity of Avatar. Avatar did not enjoy a huge opening, comparatively, earning only $77 million, which places it at No. 67 on the current all-time opening weekend charts at Box Office Mojo.

However, the film went on to gross $2.8 billion globally. Star Wars: The Force Awakens boasts a talented international cast and decades worth of anticipation.

It is also a franchise worth at least $4.2 billion, since that is what Disney paid George Lucas for it.

“It’s in the same spot as Avatar, which played and played and played,” Cotrino said. “Force Awakens will hit $1 billion without blinking. If it’s really good, it could cross $2 billion.”

Cotrino is likely correct on the overall, but what about the opening weekend? Did ABI shoot too low in its estimates?

A good benchmark would be to look at Jurassic World, which is the current opening weekend frontrunner, both globally and domestically.

The Box Office Mojo numbers, linked above, report that film with a hearty $208.8 million domestic take and a foreign addition of $316.6 million for a grand total of close to $525.6 million.

Playing it conservatively, you could say that the Star Wars box office take will improve on that by at least 30 percent. It could be much higher if you look at pre-sale tickets as an indication.

As of Nov. 20, Entertainment Weekly reports that The Force Awakens is causing the largest surge the industry has ever seen. Shortly after offering the first batch of tickets on Oct. 19, Fandango has acknowledged that early Star Wars box office numbers have surpassed the previous record holder by eight-fold and AMC Theatres said the number was “more than tenfold.”

“Given that kind of buzz, it’s likely a low aim to put the first weekend at just 30 percent higher than Jurassic World, but that’s where this prediction is settling. Doing so, you can expect opening weekend Star Wars box office results for The Force Awakens to be at $272 million domestically and around $411 million foreign for a total of $683 million, give or take.”

Of course, not everyone will agree with that sentiment.

What about you, readers? Do you agree with this figure, or do you think the film will do better/worse? Sound off in the comments section.

[Image via Lucasfilm/Star Wars]

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