Posted in: Theories

Peru Volcano Eruption Prediction Points To 2014 Chile Earthquake, But Is This Bad Science?

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Peru volcano eruption predictions have worried some Peruvians in the past, but should anyone be worried that Chile’s earthquake is pointing to a coming 2014 eruption?

In a related report by The Inquisitr, California earthquake predictions claim the geology of Los Angeles could potentially lead to the “big one,” although some are worried about an offshore earthquake that generates a large tsunami. The tremors being felt along the West Coast have also generated fears that a Yellowstone national park volcano eruption may generate a supervolcano large enough to wipe out the United States.

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The recent Chile earthquake measured at 8.2 magnitude, and there were warnings issued for Peru which shares a border. Even the aftershocks that were hundreds of miles away were in the 4.0 to 5.0 magnitude range.

Mike Simons, a seismologist at the United States Geological Survey, claims that Chile earthquake predictions are not accurate, but he does feel the “big one” is coming down the road:

“Could be tomorrow, could be in 50 years; we do not know when it’s going to occur. But the key point here is that this magnitude-8.2 is not the large earthquake that we were expecting for this area. We’re actually still expecting potentially an even larger earthquake. This is the one remaining gap that hasn’t had an earthquake in the last 140 years. We know these two plates come together at about 6, 7 centimeters a year, and if you multiply that by 140 years then the plates should have moved about 11 meters along the fault, and you can make an estimate of the size of earthquake we expect here.”

While geological instability can certainly affect volcanoes, it’s also claimed the opposite is true. For example, last summer Peru’s volcanic activity was said to have caused various earthquakes in the region. Although scientists claimed the earthquakes “did not indicate that the volcano will erupt,” they also admitted that years of earthquake activity may “produce an eruption.”

Peru’s volcano eruption in 2014 did have some forewarning, with the nation’s geological and mining agency noticing a buildup of lava in recent weeks. They successfully predicted in the short term that residents should be prepared to flee if the volcano sparked to life. But in recent months, a Peruvian research team from the Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) has been attempting to determine if Peru’s volcano eruption predictions can be made more accurate.

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The team has been attempting to simulate the hydrothermal systems underneath volcanoes with computer models:

“The majority of active volcanoes have an internal hydrothermal system. These systems develop from the infiltration of rainwater that acidifies, heats up, boils and is partly vaporized as it comes into contact with the magma. Changes in volcanic activity are reflected in the variations of movement and volume of these liquids or gases. Sometimes during an eruption, magma breaks up in contact with the hydrothermal system causing an explosive type eruption. Hydrothermal activity such as this may also contribute to destabilizing the volcanic edifice in the long term, by altering the rocks…. This study will help other scientists locate the hydrothermal activity beneath the volcanoes and to characterize the permanent boiling in their belly. The results will also contribute to better monitoring of the volcanoes and better management of eruption events.”

Back in the United States, teams have also been monitoring Yellowstone national park using underground radar scans. While they can’t say if there’s any immediate danger or not, they can successfully monitor for a pressure build up and give a short term prediction.

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Volcano Eruptions And Earthquake Predictions Are Hoaxes?

Unfortunately, the black art of predicting earthquakes and volcanoes can also be used to scare people. Back in 2012, South America was spooked when supposed Russian “scientists” predicted a Peru earthquake that would supposedly be felt even in the United States with the aftershocks. Unfortunately, these so-called earthquake predictions were culled by “decoding” alien messages supposedly left at Machu Picchu, Chavin de Huantar, and the Nazca lines.

Hernando Tavera, head of Peru’s National Geophysical Institute, recalls how this idea was spread through social media and scared many:

“They are interpreting messages that have allegedly been left by alien civilizations, but these interpretations are completely subjective. Their claims have no scientific basis. Predicting an earthquake is on the same level as seeing something in a crystal ball.”

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In the end, anyone claiming the 2014 Chile earthquake may trigger a catastrophic volcanic eruption in Peru or anywhere else in South America is essentially making a guess at best, or just trying to get media attention at worst. Do you think Peru’s volcano eruption problems can ever be accurately predicted?

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7 Responses to “Peru Volcano Eruption Prediction Points To 2014 Chile Earthquake, But Is This Bad Science?”

  1. Gilbert Lay

    But one thing is for sure- the Earths core is millions of degrees hot and can still explode as it does every time we see a Volcano, and earthquakes are a documented fact. Disparity of strength from either can be measured with time; the belief is all stars eventually die or they explode into a million pieces.

  2. Edward Siegel

    "THE USGS DOES NOT MAKE ANY EARTHQUAKE EARLY-WARNINGS MUCHLESS PREDICTIONS W H A T S O E V E R"???
    THE USGS C A N N O T MAKE SUCH PREDICTIONS!!!
    HOW ABOUT EARLY-WARNINGS???
    THE USGS A L S O DOES NOT MAKE SUCH EARLY-WARNINGS!!!
    WHY???
    THE USGS A L S O C A N N O T MAKE SUCH EARLY-WARNINGS!!!
    THE USGS CAN AT BEST ONLY ANNOUNCE THAT AN EARTHQUAKE H A S (P A S T – TENSE!!!) WHICH UNFORTUNATELY EVERY BUG AND EARTHWORM AND TREE AND SURVIVOR/PERSON AND EVEN DEAD PERSONS
    A L R E A D Y KNOW!!!
    USGS??? UNITED STATES OF APPREHENSIVITY/FEARFULNESS/TERROR GEOLOGICAL SURVIVORS( [MARCIA] McNUTTS ALL!!!) WITH NO PREDICTIONS NOR EVEN EARLY WARNUNGS OF IMMINENT EARTHQUAKES!!!
    THE SALIENT EARTHQUAKES(L.A., CA.)/LANDSLIDES (OSO, WA.)./MUDSLIDES (OSO, WA.) QUESTION (“OMNES GENERATIONES”(LATIN) AKA “L’DOR VA’DOR” (HEBREW) “IS, WAS AND EVER SHALL BE, WORLD WITHOUT END, AMEN”!!!:
    "WHERE OH WHERE IS/WAS THE USGS B E F O R E THE EARTHQUAKE(L.A., CA.)/(MUDSLIDE(OSO, WA,), WHERE OH WHERE CAN/WAS IT BE???"
    SEISMOLOGY D I D N O T BECAUSE IT C A N N O T "PREDICT"
    THIS, NOR ANY OTHER EARTHQUAKE(EQ) BECAUSE IT, OVER-ENCUMBERED WITH "SPECIFICITY-OF-'COMPLEXITY' " (SoC)-TACTICS, IT CAN AT BEST ONLY APPLY LOCALLY IF AT ALL!!!
    DESPITE SHOW-BIZ P.R. MEDIA-HYPE SPIN-DOCTORING ENTERTAINING ("FULL OF 'FURY'; SIGNIFYING ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!") AKA B.S.(!!!)
    (“GAMES PEOPLE PLAY WITH THEMSELVES AND FOIST ON OTHERS!!!; THOSE WHO CAN, DO; THOSE WHO CANNOT, MODEL!!!”)

  3. Edward Siegel

    "WHERE OH WHERE IS THE USGS B E F O R E THE EARTHQUAKE(L.A., CA.)/(MUDSLIDE(OSO, WA,), OH WHERE OH WHERE CAN IT BE???"
    SEISMOLOGY D I D N O T BECAUSE IT C A N N O T "PREDICT" THIS, NOR ANY OTHER EARTHQUAKE(EQ) BECAUSE IT, OVER-ENCUMBERED WITH "SPECIFICITY-OF-'COMPLEXITY' " (SoC)-TACTICS, IT CAN AT BEST ONLY APPLY LOCALLY IF AT ALL!!! DESPITE: KELIS-BORAK(RIP!!!; UCLA)) AND THOMAS JORDAN'S (MIT/USC) AND LEON KNOPOFF'S (UCLA)AND RUNDLE WITH DONALD TURCOTTE(CORNELL/UC-DAVIS) SHOW-BIZ P.R. MEDIA-HYPE SPIN-DOCTORING ENTERTAINING("FULL OF 'FURY'; SIGNIFYING ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!") B.S.(!!!) [GOOGLE "EDWARD SIEGEL NPR TURCOTTE"] CLAIMS TO THE CONTRARY, WITH ACQUIESICING (!!!) ONLY ROMAN GABRIELOV(PURDUE) AND EMIL OKAL(NORTHWESTERN) AND VLADIMIR KASSABOKOV AND HIROO KANAMORI (CALTECH; KYOTO-PRIZE-WINNER) AND STEVEN DAY(SDSU) AND MARY LOU WITH MARK ZOBACK(STANFORD) AND BAXTER ARMSTRONG(IBM) ONCE WITH CLEMENT TATRO(RIP!!!; MSU/LLNL) HAS/HAD ANY IDEA OF G E N E R I C THINKING!!! THE USGS, (MARCIA!!!) McNUTTS ALL, SIMPLY HAS NOT ANY CLUE IN ANY WAY WHATSOEVER!!!

  4. Edward Siegel

    AS A, IF NOT T H E ONLY, F A T H E R[1968{WITH JULIAN FREDERICK(UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN[UM]) WITH CHARLES VEST: UM; MIT PRESIDENT-EMERITUS!!!; NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING-CHAIRMAN-EMERITUS!!!}; 1971[{& CLEMENT TATRO(RIP!!!; MSU/LLNL), T H E T R U E F A T H E R OF ACOUSTIC-EMISSION!!!(AFTER KAISER!!!)}; PHYSICA STATUS SOLIDI = FIRST ACOUSTIC-EMISSION MEASUREMENT OF CREEP-PLASTICITY/PLASTIC-FLOW=2-PAPERS!!!; [ EXAMPLE: GOOGLE: SIEGEL AND GREGSON JR., MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING 1971”]; 1974[SCRIPTA METALLURGICA]; 1975; 1976[3RD WORLD CONFERENCE ON ACOUSTIC-EMISSION, TOKYO]; 1977[ACTA METALLURGICA]; 1980[ARISTOTLE BIRTHDAY SYMPOSIUM ON PHYSICS AND MECHANICS, THESSOLONIKI]; 1992[MATERIALS RESEARCH SOCIETY FALL MEETING, BOSTON]];…] OF (SO M I S – CALLED) “BAK”/”BNL”/”DOE” S T O L E N (MUCH OVER-HYPED) ‘SANDPILE-AVALANCHES’ (“GAMES PEOPLE PLAY WITH THEMSELVES AND FOIST ON OTHERS!!!; THOSE WHO CAN, DO; THOSE WHO CANNOT, MODEL!!!”) “SELF-ORGANIZED-CRITICALITY” (SOC), MERELY “A TAD LATE” RE-DISCOVERY OF ISAAC NEWTON’S THIRD-LAW OF MOTION F = ma BUT IN THE (r.t) INVERSE/DUAL/TRANSFORM-SPACE (k[=1/r],w[=1/t]) [GOOGLE: “EDWARD SIEGEL ACOUSTIC-EMISSION”; “EDWARD SIEGEL PLASTIC-FLOW”; “EDWARD SIEGEL PLASTICITY”; “EDWARD SIEGEL JAMMING”; “EDWARD SIEGEL FRACTURE”; “EDWARD SIEGEL NOISE”; “EDWARD SIEGEL 1-OVER-f NOISE”; “EDWARD SIEGEL POWER-SPECTRUM”; “EDWARD SIEGEL POWER-SPECTRA”; “EDWARD SIEGEL SELF-ORGANIZED-CRITICALITY”; “EDWARD SIEGEL SOC”; …]
    WHILE IN SEATTLE(2010-2013) I REPEATEDLY WARNED STATE OF WASHINGTON OFFICIALS (WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF ECOLOGY!!!; GOVERNOR’S-OFFICE!!! ENUMEATED, DENUMERATED, NAMED IN DETAIL BELOW!!!) TO IGNORE THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON AKA wIsh-ing-a-ton IT COULD/WOULD BE HONEST!!!, “WOULD-BE “SCIENCES” BUT SADLY ALAS MERE S E A N C E S(!!!)”(UW.EDU) / NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (NSF.GOV) SEISMOLOGY SHEER-NONSENSE(!!!) AS MEDIA-HYPE P.R. SPIN-DOCTORED “SHOW-BIZ” “BUSH-WAAAH-…-AAH” B.S. MARKETED/ PROMULGATED/TRUMPETED BY MOST ESPECIALLY EVER-DYSFUNCTIONAL EARTH-SCIENCES DEPARTMENT EVER-DYSFUNCTIONAL SEISMOLOGY-LABORATORY (AKA LaVatory!!!)’s JOHN VIDALE AND HEIDI HOUSTON’S AND ALLISON DUVALL’S HOCUS-POCUS(!!!) “SLOW-QUAKES”(=(MERELY)= F = ma ! ! !) AND “GEO-MORPHOLOGY” SHEER-NONSENSE(!!!), AND/WITH EVER-DYSFUNCTIONAL UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON(AKA wIshing(IT WERE HONEST!!!)ton) APPLIED-PHYSICS LABORATORY(AKA LaVatory!!!)’s EVER-DYSFUNCTIONAL SEISMOLOGY-LABORATORY(AKA LaVatory!!!)’s ROBERT ODOM (AKA ODOR!!!) HOCUS-POCUS SHEER-NON SENSE(!!!).(FREQUENCY UNITS IN HERTZ, V E R S U S N O T ANYMORE CYCLES-PER-SECOND, AND N E V E R A G A I N IN PERIOD[UNLESS IT IS MOTHER-EARTH'S FEMALE "TIME-OF-THE-MONTH/DECADE/CENTURY/MILLENIUM!!!???)

  5. Edward Siegel

    USGS??? SAME OLD SAME OLD SAME OLD!! THEY'RE ALL (MARCIA) McNUTTS!!! THEY CAN ONLY ANNOUNCE THAT AN EARTHQUAKE H A S JUST OCCURRED WHEN THE BEST TRANSDUCERS, ANIMALS’ BARE TOOTSIES, AND EVERY BUG AND EARTHWORM KNOWS THAT(AND EVEN SOME RARELY-SOBER FOLKS TOO!!!). HOW ABOUT, INSTEAD OF THE USUAL P O S T(!!!)-DICTION, SOME P R E (! ! !)- D I C T I O N ALREADY USGS??? WE DON'T WANT TO CRY OVER SPILLED MILK BUT TO PREVENT OUR MILK FROM SPILLING!!! LEARN THAT NEWTON'S THIRD-LAW OF MOTION F = m a HAS A UNIVERSAL INVERSSE/DUAL-TRANSFORM FROM BY-ROTE USGS/AGU-LAND'S POSITION(r) AND TIME(t) TO ITS INVERSE/DUAL-SPACE (k=1/r; w = 1/t) CALLED A POWER-SPECTRUM (EITHER (PEJORATIVE) "NOISE" ~ GENERALIZED-SUSCEPTIBILITY [= 1/m = a/F = EFFECT/CAUSE = OUTPUT/INPUT = X(w) WITH AN INTER-INVERSE-VARIABLES-RELATING DISPERSION-RELATION w(k)!!! THIS IS SOLID-STATE/CONDENSED-MATTER PHYSICS – LAND, AND CIRCA ~1922 LEON BRILLOUIN(RIP!!!) [“WAVE-PROPAGATION IN PERIODIC-STRUCTURES”, DOVER] IT BECAME GOSPEL TO ANYONE AND EVERYONE EXCEPT: BIOLOGISTS, SOME CHEMISTS, AND LAST-BUT-NOT LEAST SEISMOLOGISTS!!!

  6. Edward Siegel

    CALIFORNIA THANKS GOD FOR FAR-SIGHTED PRESCIENT POLITICIANS LIKE: GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN, LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR GAVIN NEWSOM, SENATORS DIANNE FEINSTEIN AND BARBARA BOXER(RE. THE OSO M UDSLIDE!!!: VERSUS THAT SAD WASHINGTON LOT: GOVERNOR JAY INSLEE(AKA "IS-A-LIE"), ATTORNEY-GENERAL BOB FERGUSON(AKA BUB FUGYOURSON") SENATORS PATTYCAKE MURRY AND MARIA CAN'TDOWELL!!!)
    “EMET!!” = T R U T H ABOUT WASHINGTON-LANDSLIDE!!! (VIA-A-VIS POLITICIANS!!! & UW.EDU B.S.!!!):
    MUCH NEWS RE. WASHINGTON LANDSLIDE REPORTAGE IS DEAD – WRONG!!! IN THAT IT OMITS POLITICAL ASPECT: GOVERNOR JAY INSLEE, ATTORNEY-GENERAL BOB FERGUSON AND STATE ECOLOGY DEPARTMENT FMR. DIRECTOR TED STURDIVANT & HIS SUCCESSOR AND/VIA UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON(INSLEE EX-OFFICIO BOARDMEMBER/CHAIR): BOARD OF REGENTS/DIRECTORS( ANY!!!/ALL!!!); PRESIDENT MICHAEL YOUNG, PROVOST MARY ANN CUCCE; POLICE-CHIEF JOHN VINSON; ANY/ALL DEANS; ANY/ALL DEPARTMENTS CHAIRS;DIRECTOR & “INVESTIGATORS”, WASHINGTON STATE HUMAN-RIGHTS COMMISSION!!! P U R P O S E L Y C H I C A N E R Y VIS-À-VIS BOTH LANDSLIDE-DANGERS ALONG THESE COAL-TRAIN-ROUTES!!! AND THE ONGOING/NEVERENDING HORRORS OF HANFORD!!! TRY TO CONTACT DR. JANIS WIGNALL [CELL-#: (206) 683-7131; WIGNALLJ@EARTHLINK.NET] WHO LIVES IN NORTH-BEACH NEIGHBORHOOD OF WEST-BALLARD IN NORTHWEST-SEATTLE ANDMIGHT BOTH GIVE YOU HER/THEIR OPINIONS AND CONTACTS TO ANTI-COAL-TRAIN ENVIRONMENTALISTS NOW BECOMING ANTI-INSLEE (AKA “IS-A-LIE”!!!) WHO LIES THROUGH HIS TEETH ABOUT THE LANDSLIDE, THE COAL-TRAINS, HANFORD, AND JUST ABOUT IT SEEMS ANYTHING/EVERYTHING ELSE!!!
    “EMET!!” = T R U T H ABOUT WASHINGTON-LANDSLIDE!!! (VIA-A-VIS POLITICIANS!!! & UW.EDU B.S.!!!):
    INSLIE’S (AKA “IS-A-LIE”’S) CHRIS CHRISTY-LIKE GAMES PEOPLE PLAY WITH THEMSELVES, OTHERS AND THEIR CONSTITUENTS!!!