Posted in: Theories

California Earthquake Only A 4.4, But 2014 Predictions Claim Disaster Ahead

California Earthquake Only A 4.4 , But 2014 Predictions Claim Disaster Ahead

A California earthquake welcomed the residents of Los Angeles to St. Patrick’s Day this morning. Fortunately, the U.S. Geological Survey says the 4.7 quake, as it was originally reported, turned out to be only a 4.4 magnitude quake. But California earthquake predictions in 2014 have scientists claiming there could be a future disaster.

In a related report by The Inquisitr, the most recent California earthquake struck off of the Eureka coast. The magnitude 6.9 quake was followed by numerous aftershocks measuring 4.6, which makes the Los Angeles earthquake this morning look weak in comparison.

According to the National Earthquake Information Center, there were tens of thousands of earthquakes measured last year. The southern portion of California is actually more likely to have a major disaster compared to other areas in the state. Los Angeles is built on top of a large sedimentary basin that amplifies the effects of earthquakes, and directs the oscillating waves of dirt toward downtown. In addition, if an offshore 9.0 magnitude California earthquake were to trigger a tsunami, residents would only have a 15 minute warning at best. This wave of destruction could wash away whole sections of the coast, destroy highways, and knock down bridges.

The San Andreas fault has long inspired fears that a giant earthquake in California could cause the state to break off from the United States, or form a volcano. These worst case scenarios have spawned thriller movies, but is such a likelihood even possible? As it turns out, California earthquake predictions claim 2014 may the year of the “big one.”

Greg Beroza, a geophysics professor at Stanford, recently published his work in a January edition of the journal Science. Scientists discovered that, in addition to seismometers stationed near the San Andreas fault, they could use a computer simulation to make predictions based upon the “ambient seismic field generated by ocean waves interacting with the Earth.” Based upon the previous results they’ve been predicting a Los Angeles earthquake in 2014 that may be worse than feared.

Another organization called Global Weather Oscillations Inc. published a report in April of 2011 that claimed the California earthquake 2014 risk was far greater than other years. While they claim March has the high risk, they also say there is a 75 percent risk of a 7.0 to 8.0 magnitude Los Angeles earthquake from now until June of 2014. Their report also extends out to June of 2016, where the risk is said to diminish down to only seven percent.

Are you concerned about the California earthquake predictions for 2014? Would you risk living in Los Angeles given the potential threat?

Articles And Offers From The Web

Comments

21 Responses to “California Earthquake Only A 4.4, But 2014 Predictions Claim Disaster Ahead”

  1. Nik Deems

    There is a ZERO (cero, null, none) percent chance of a 9.0 earthquake happening along the San Andreas, or any other transform fault for that matter. The tectonics just don't allow for it. Also, as a geologist, I have never heard of this Global Weather Oscillations company, and I wouldn't put too much stock into geologic predictions made by a company run solely by meteorologists. If you want reliable information on earthquakes, please go to USGS.gov or pangea.stanford.edu

  2. William Daski

    My brother just moved out to LA with his wife. Scary stuff.

  3. Sarah Anne Barrett

    I think the M 9 they're talking about would be offshore in the Cascadia subduction zone – which has happened in historic times (~1700). The GWO paragraph is a little iffy – I've not seen evidence that points to any sort of season variation in earthquake probability, nor do I think many people in the seis group here would suggest that as a viable method of prediction. Pointing people to usgs.gov is always the way to go.

  4. Nik Deems

    @ Anne: I know. That's why I posted our school's web page. I was simply drawing attention to their mention of "an offshore 9.0 magnitude California earthquake were to trigger a tsunami" which cannot happen, nor does Professor Beroza imply, but, like Sarah pointed out, is possible within the Cascade subduction zone near OR and WA. The one Sarah mentions was the one I believe which leveled Seattle.

  5. Jeff Anderson

    Nik, you're 100% correct. While many individuals and groups have tried, there is literally no evidence of any successful earthquake prediction method. The Stanford study is NOT predicting a quake, but rather they have studied the impact on the LA Basin of a large event on the San Andreas fault. This study is introducing the concept that the LA Basin will realize more violent, longer shaking than once estimated as a result of a "funnel" affect that the San Gabriel mountain range causes. Basically, sedimentary rock reacts differently during an earthquake than solid rock found in mountain ranges. The LA/San Fernando Basins are all sedimentary rock, and will shake more liberally during a major quake. The mountain ranges will act as a funnel, channeling both P-Waves and S-Waves to these basins, causing more movement and ultimately more damage. This study said nothing about a stronger magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas fault however. That range is still between 7.0-8.0. Moral of the story? Be prepared. Period. This morning was a "friendly" reminder that we live in EQ country. When a larger earthquake DOES occur, and it most certainly will, I guarantee it will not be so friendly. I live in Northridge, CA and 20 years ago, there was nothing friendly about that reminder.

  6. The Next California Earthquake

    Exactly. Although, if you'll recall, the 8.6 and 8.2 in Indonesia in 2012 were the largest strike slip quakes ever recorded and because it was surprising, they led to some changes in the modeling of those types of faults.

  7. Angela Bee

    Stick with the geologists not meteorologists regarding earthquakes.

  8. Keith Johnson

    There can be NO Tsunami because so a quake along the San Andreas… The Southern California fault zones do not slide in the direction that produces them. The Tsunami threat for the West Coast of the US is up north, near Seattle. The Cascadia Subduction Zone (where the Pacific plate dives under the North American plate) is the kind of geological formation that will generate a Tsunami.

    It's the "Rainy Coffee Fashionistas" that need to worry about big waves with little/no warning.

  9. Harold Ivie

    Well, it is coming, and that's for sure; no debate about it. When, is a different question; but the event is a lot closer to now then five-thousand years from now. That is also a certainty!

  10. Jeremy Bringardner

    how can you be so sure. from what information/insight is your certainty derived?

  11. Bill Robertson

    I was at a party and a French Geologist was talking about the big one and scaring everyone in sight. I asked, "Is it possible that the big one was in 94?" He paused, and then replied, "Yes, it is possible." So, I guess anything is possible. Yes, being prepared is the best thing we can all do, but I just wish the news media would stop scaring people.

  12. Elizabeth Rolison

    There is a 0 chance at 0. No crystal ball. No on knows for certain.

  13. Anonymous

    ­­­$9­­­­­­­­­7­­­/­­­­­h­­­­­­r­­­­­­­­­ ­­p­­­­av­­­iv­­­­d­­­­v­­­­­­­­­ b­­­­­­­­­y G­­­­­­­­­oog­­­­­­­­­le­­­­­­­­­, I­­­­­­­­­ am ­­­­­­­­­making ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­good ­­­­­­­­­salary ­­­­­­­­­from ­­­­­­­­­ho­­­­­­­me ­­­­­­­­­$­­­­­­­5­­­­­­­5­­­­0­­­­­­­0­­­­­­­­­­$­­­­700­­­­0/w­­­­eek , ­­­­­­­­­wh­­­­ich ­­­­­­­­­is ­­­­­­­­­amazing, ­­­­­­­­­un­­­­der ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­ye­­­­ar ­­­­­­­­­ago ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­was ­­­­­­­­­jobless ­­­­­­­­­in ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­ho­­­­rr­­­­­­­ib­­­­le ­­­­­­­­­eco­­­­­­­nomy. ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­thank ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­God ­­­­­­­­­every ­­­­­­­­­day ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­was ­­­­­­­­­bles­­­­­­­sed ­­­­­­­­­with ­­­­­­­­­th­­­­es­­­­e ­­­­­­­­­ins­­­­tructions ­­­­­­­­­and ­­­­­­­­­now ­­­­­­­it's ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­my ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­duty ­­­­­­­­­to ­­­­­­­­­pay ­­­­­­­­­it ­­­­­­­­­forward ­­­­­­­­­and ­­­­­­­­­sha­­­­­­­re ­­­­­­­­­it ­­­­­­­­­with ­­­­­­­­­Eve­­­­­­­r­­­­yo­­­­ne, ­­­­­­­­­He­­­­re ­­­­­­­­­is ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­s­­ta­­rt­­ed,,,­­­­­­­­f­­­­­­­­o­­­­­­­­r a ­­­­­­­­de­­­­­­­­tai­­­­­­­­l ch­­­­­­­­ec­­­­­­­­k the te­­­­­­­­ch t­­­­­­­­ab…

    ­­­­w­w­w.w­o­r­k­b­a­r­r.C­o­m­

  14. Anonymous

    ­­­$9­­­­­­­­­7­­­/­­­­­h­­­­­­r­­­­­­­­­ ­­p­­­­av­­­iv­­­­d­­­­v­­­­­­­­­ b­­­­­­­­­y G­­­­­­­­­oog­­­­­­­­­le­­­­­­­­­, I­­­­­­­­­ am ­­­­­­­­­making ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­good ­­­­­­­­­salary ­­­­­­­­­from ­­­­­­­­­ho­­­­­­­me ­­­­­­­­­$­­­­­­­5­­­­­­­5­­­­0­­­­­­­0­­­­­­­­­­$­­­­700­­­­0/w­­­­eek , ­­­­­­­­­wh­­­­ich ­­­­­­­­­is ­­­­­­­­­amazing, ­­­­­­­­­un­­­­der ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­ye­­­­ar ­­­­­­­­­ago ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­was ­­­­­­­­­jobless ­­­­­­­­­in ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­ho­­­­rr­­­­­­­ib­­­­le ­­­­­­­­­eco­­­­­­­nomy. ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­thank ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­God ­­­­­­­­­every ­­­­­­­­­day ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­was ­­­­­­­­­bles­­­­­­­sed ­­­­­­­­­with ­­­­­­­­­th­­­­es­­­­e ­­­­­­­­­ins­­­­tructions ­­­­­­­­­and ­­­­­­­­­now ­­­­­­­it's ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­my ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­duty ­­­­­­­­­to ­­­­­­­­­pay ­­­­­­­­­it ­­­­­­­­­forward ­­­­­­­­­and ­­­­­­­­­sha­­­­­­­re ­­­­­­­­­it ­­­­­­­­­with ­­­­­­­­­Eve­­­­­­­r­­­­yo­­­­ne, ­­­­­­­­­He­­­­re ­­­­­­­­­is ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­s­­ta­­rt­­ed,,,­­­­­­­­f­­­­­­­­o­­­­­­­­r a ­­­­­­­­de­­­­­­­­tai­­­­­­­­l ch­­­­­­­­ec­­­­­­­­k the te­­­­­­­­ch t­­­­­­­­ab…

    ­­­­w­w­w.w­o­r­k­b­a­r­r.C­o­m­

  15. Anonymous

    ­­­$9­­­­­­­­­7­­­/­­­­­h­­­­­­r­­­­­­­­­ ­­p­­­­av­­­iv­­­­d­­­­v­­­­­­­­­ b­­­­­­­­­y G­­­­­­­­­oog­­­­­­­­­le­­­­­­­­­, I­­­­­­­­­ am ­­­­­­­­­making ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­good ­­­­­­­­­salary ­­­­­­­­­from ­­­­­­­­­ho­­­­­­­me ­­­­­­­­­$­­­­­­­5­­­­­­­5­­­­0­­­­­­­0­­­­­­­­­­$­­­­700­­­­0/w­­­­eek , ­­­­­­­­­wh­­­­ich ­­­­­­­­­is ­­­­­­­­­amazing, ­­­­­­­­­un­­­­der ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­ye­­­­ar ­­­­­­­­­ago ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­was ­­­­­­­­­jobless ­­­­­­­­­in ­­­­­­­­­a ­­­­­­­­­ho­­­­rr­­­­­­­ib­­­­le ­­­­­­­­­eco­­­­­­­nomy. ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­thank ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­God ­­­­­­­­­every ­­­­­­­­­day ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­was ­­­­­­­­­bles­­­­­­­sed ­­­­­­­­­with ­­­­­­­­­th­­­­es­­­­e ­­­­­­­­­ins­­­­tructions ­­­­­­­­­and ­­­­­­­­­now ­­­­­­­it's ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­my ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­duty ­­­­­­­­­to ­­­­­­­­­pay ­­­­­­­­­it ­­­­­­­­­forward ­­­­­­­­­and ­­­­­­­­­sha­­­­­­­re ­­­­­­­­­it ­­­­­­­­­with ­­­­­­­­­Eve­­­­­­­r­­­­yo­­­­ne, ­­­­­­­­­He­­­­re ­­­­­­­­­is ­­­­­­­­­I ­­­­­­­­­s­­ta­­rt­­ed,,,­­­­­­­­f­­­­­­­­o­­­­­­­­r a ­­­­­­­­de­­­­­­­­tai­­­­­­­­l ch­­­­­­­­ec­­­­­­­­k the te­­­­­­­­ch t­­­­­­­­ab…

    ­­­­w­w­w.w­o­r­k­b­a­r­r.C­o­m­

  16. Stacey Lynch

    It's amusing to listen to people try to predict this or that. If you keep saying it and wait long enough it will probably happen. You just have to keep saying it until it does. THEN you are right. ;)

  17. Leon James

    I don't think cali will never have the big one. I belive it will happen in mid u.s. that old fault line from the 1800s we had a tremor already in texas.